Clement closing on Alexander
Posted by
Alexander’s lead is down to nine points in the latest poll:
WASHINGTON - Republican Lamar Alexander holds a 9-point lead in the race for Senate over Democrat Bob Clement, who so far is failing to pick up the usual Democratic support from minority and female voters.
A poll for The Commercial Appeal and News Channel 3 shows Alexander with 45 percent of the vote to 36 percent for Clement, with a smattering of votes going to John Jay Hooker and others.
Seventeen percent of those surveyed said they had not made up their minds or refused to say who would get their votes.
Larry Pangle, 57, a Memphis pharmacist, said he’s looking for someone who “will do things according to what makes sense, rather than ideology.”
Ethridge & Associates polled 819 Tennesseans from Oct. 18 to 21. All had voted in the governor’s election in 1994 or 1998 or both. The poll has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
Typically, Democratic candidates have done well with female voters and Republicans with men. But women in Tennessee have not warmed up to Clement.
It is interesting that Alexander has not been able to break the 50% mark, despite his fondly remembered stint as Governor. It is a bit worrying, though, that Clement is not doing as well as expected among women and minorities. I am starting to see negative ads from the Alexander campaign, ads that very starkly accuse Clement of being a liar. A campaign that felt itself comfortably in the control would not, I think, use such crude ads. It is possible that Alexander and his campaign are beginning to panic, a bit.
One final point. The margin of error in this poll is 3.5%, but:
Ethridge & Associates polled 819 Tennesseans from Oct. 18 to 21. All had voted in the governor’s election in 1994 or 1998 or both. The poll has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
They may be undercounting the Dem vote. In 2000, there were voter irregularities in Tennessee, and Democrats here have not forgotten that. Early voting numbers suggest that turnout is going to be higher than usual for a midterm election. Combine that with the closeness of the governor’s race (Bredesen and Van Hillary are in a statistical tie), which should bring people to the polls, and I think that race will be much closer than it appears now.
