TGirsch’s MLB All-Star Picks
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tgirsch
UPDATE: Seems I jinxed Cordero, who gave up his first home run of the season today, a two-out, two-run shot that cost the Brewers the game. So Cordero’s out, and Saito’s in.
Here they are:
| AL: | |
|---|---|
| SP: | Haren, OAK |
| C: | Martínez, CLE |
| 1B: | Morneau, MIN |
| 2B: | Polanco, DET |
| 3B: | Rodríguez, NYY |
| SS: | Guillén, DET |
| OF: | Ordóñez, DET |
| OF: | Sheffield, DET |
| OF: | Guerrero, LAA |
| RP: | Okajima, BOS |
| CP: | Putz, SEA |
| NL: | |
|---|---|
| SP: | Peavy, SD |
| C: | Martin, LAD |
| 1B: | Fielder, MIL |
| 2B: | Utley, PHI |
| 3B: | Cabrera, FLA |
| SS: | Reyes, NYM* |
| OF: | Holliday, COL |
| OF: | Lee, HOU |
| OF: | Hawpe, COL |
| RP: | Bell, SD |
| CP: |
My methodology? Rather than just picking my favorite players, I actually tried to be somewhat scientific about things, although even that turns out to be quite subjective.
For position players, I first imposed a 60-game minimum. If you’re not an every day player, or close to it, you’re not an all-star. Then, from those players, I looked at what I called “Run production,” which is the number of runs a player accounts for each game. I calculated this as (RBI+R-HR)/G. (I subtract out the home runs, because otherwise they would be double-counted, as these count as both a run and an RBI.) Then, among the top few players at each position, I considered errors, fielding percentage, etc., in order to pick a winner at that position. These latter considerations only changed one player, lifting the Mets’ José Reyes above the more-offensively-productive Jimmy Rollins of Philadelphia.
The exception to this was catchers. Since it’s not uncommon to rotate catchers (since some pitchers are selective about who catches for them), here I only imposed a 40-game minimum, and instead of fielding percentage, I looked mainly at runners caught stealing as an intangible. As it turns out, in both leagues the best offensive catchers were also among the best at throwing out runners, so offensive stats alone wound up ruling the day.
Pitchers were a little trickier. For starting pitchers, I imposed a 12 start minimum, and then looked at ERA, WHIP, IP, and W-L. In the AL, while Verlander (DET), Santana (MIN), and Beckett (BOS) are the “sexy” picks, it’s clear that Dan Haren of Oakland is the stud here. He doesn’t have the win count largely because he gets saddled with a lot of no-decisions, but his ERA is just 1.91 in 117.2 innings over 17 starts (next best is 2.78), and his WHIP is a microscopic 0.94. That’s the guy I want pitching for me. Over in the NL, things are tighter. You could make a decent case for the Dodgers’ Penny, or Young or Peavy from the Padres; initially I was going to go with Penny on the basis of his low ERA, but Peavy is only a few points higher and has a much better strikeout-to-walk ratio, has pitched nearly as many innings, and has only given up one home run all season. So for my money, Peavy’s your NL starter.
For middle-relievers, I looked at ERA, WHIP, IP, and strikeout-to-walk ratio. In the NL, the Padres’ Heath Bell seems to be a clear winner, with just a 1.39 ERA, an 0.86 WHIP, and 49 K’s against just 13 walks in 45.1 innings. The AL was even clearer to me: Boston’s Hideki Okajima has a tiny 0.96 ERA, an 0.8 WHIP, and 34 K’s against 10 walks in 37.2 innings pitched. You could make a case for the Twins’ Pat Neshek, but Okajima seemed the clear winner to me.
The Closers were easier for me. In the NL, although there are other pitchers with lower ERAs and WHIPs, Milwaukee’s Francisco Cordero has 27 saves in 29 opportunities, and has given up zero home runs. The Dodgers’ Takashi Saito gets an honorable mention here, with his 1.41 ERA and 0.75 WHIP, and just 3 walks against 41 K’s. This is probably the one place where I let team loyalty get the better of me, as Saito could just as easily be the NL closer. Over in the AL, the unfortunately named J.J. Putz of Seattle seems the obvious choice. He’s tied for the AL lead with 22 saves, leads AL closers by a wide margin with a 1.02 ERA and 0.59 WHIP, and has 39 K’s against just 6 walks.
Of course, you’re bound to disagree with me on all of this, so feel free to yell at me in comments. 
Unexpectedly, I have several opinions on this topic.
First there is the question of how to evaluate players wrt all star game. Should selection be based on stats for the current 1/2 season, or should overall stature in the game be given weight? Would you rather see a bunch of guys having a career half year, or a collection of future HOFers.
Until winning the game had actual meaning, I favored stature. Now I want immediate stats. Also, since a few days rest can help players get ready for the summer grind, I selfishly hope no Red Sox players are selected.
I like some of your picks (even if your AL Central bias is obvious), but I would replace Sheffield with Ichiro this (and any) year. Ichiro is a plus plus outfielder (still) with a great arm, hits for 70 points higher average, is a prototypical lead-off hitter with an OBP well north of 400 and a great base stealer. I want him in my outfield.
Haren is a good choice, but I’d go with Santana, Beckett a close third. WHIP and especially ERA are good metrics, but they are not without flaws. A great defense, a pitcher’s home park, and playing in an offensively weak division will all reduce WHIP and ERA, whereas only the good defense will directly impact win-loss. (That said, when I am looking ahead to evaluate pitching match ups, I basically ignore WL and focus on WHIP, ERA, OBAA, K/9, W/9 and K/W.)
Youkilis deserves to go at first base. I don’t know how you can justify Morneau based on this year’s numbers (not to mention he is currently out indefinitely).
I’d pick Roberts over Polanco in a heart beat. Much more speed, and equal or better offensive numbers in every category.
Guillen’s power numbers compare favorably to Jeter, but Jeter is Jeter, and even though he (and A-Rod) play for the evil empire, I pick them both with no hesitation.
Finally, I’d go with Posada for my catcher. 30 points higher for OPS (good way to evaluate his better ability to get on base against your guy’s power advantage. He’s still great at blocking balls even if his throwing has declined some this year. With all the offensive firepower in an all star game, I don’t think a cather’s ability to shut down the running game is that important.
(With that, I suppose I have countered your Central bias with my East bias.)
I’m not an NL guy, so I don’t have any opinions there, other than to say who is Brad Hawpe, and why would I want him in an all star game?
Comment 6/28/2007
Hmmm… i think you vastly over-emphasize “run production.”
Run production is a team stat. Both runs and rbi are almost exclusively team related. If you don’t have people on base, you can’t drive them in. And if you get on base, but don’t get drive in, you can’t score.
And seriously… Carlos Lee? Over Barry Bonds? Over Soriano? Over Adam Dunn? Over Griffey?
I am not sure that Carlos Lee should even make the all-star team, none-the-less start.
And I would take Ortiz, Youkilis, and maybe even Kotchman, over Mourneau.
Comment 6/28/2007
There are few players more overhyped, paid, or rated than Carlos Lee, although Juan Pierre and Alfonso Soriano jump to mind immediately.
Ortiz over Morneau is defensible, but you can also make the argument that he is not really a 1B, and hence assed-out.
Roberts over Polanco is a fine substitution.
Grady Sizemore has to get in there somewhere too, but it is pretty tight for he and Ichiro to squeeze in. Though, if you actually started an OF of Sheff, Vlad, and Mags, you’d have to pray that whoever the starter is (Santana or Haren) strikes out half of those who face him. Any of those guys in CF would be a Bobby Bonilla at 3B level adventure. Torii Hunter is quite deserving too.
Half a season is a terrible sample size anyway and All-Star selections don’t mean anything, especially with the mandatory team representation rule. Look at Carlos Delgado’s two AS appearances and yearly OPS+ marks and look at Mike Sweeney’s five. Somebody from KC has to go, right… (this year I guess it will be Teahen backing up A-Rod).
Dave is right on with the team dependent offensive points. Pitching stats are more subject to that dynamic than many realize too. Peavy is truly a phenom, and Young has been very good in his early career, but Petco can’t hurt. Neither can Mike Cameron in CF and Greene at SS. Haren’s DIPS numbers are quite strong but having the most foul ground in the game and an above average defensive team doesn’t hurt either (though Oakland isn’t as strong this year with the gloves as last)
All things considered, this list is pretty good. There’s a host of deserving AL OFs. My biggest discrepencies would probably be in the NL OF. Like it or not, guess who is crushing the rest of the NL in OPS… yup, Barry Lamar Bonds. Griffey, Dunn and even Eric Byrnes all merit consideration too.
You could also make a good argument for Posada over Victor, especially with Victor playing about 20% of his games at 1B this year.
Good list overall.
Comment 6/28/2007
Wow, great comments all the way around.
Contrary to Ted’s allegation, I don’t have an “AL Central bias.” I evaluated players based solely on the statistics I chose to look at, and completely ignored (or almost completely ignored) what team they play for. I’d also say that in all professional sports, not just baseball, the key question is “What have you done for me lately?” So I think a good current year has to be valued over history.
I should note that I’ve never been a big fan of a primarily fan-selected All-Star squad; you wind up with guys who are having mediocre-to-terrible seasons getting in just because their history makes them popular, not because their play currently justifies their presence there. The All-Star game should spotlight emerging stars just as much as it does the established ones. And it shouldn’t count for anything, by the way. It’s just an exhibition, and mainly an even-more-meaningless one thanks to the abomination that is interleague play (but I digress…).
I’m not sure how you would justify Jeter over Carlos Guillén (other than by saying “but he’s Derek Jeter!”). Guillén’s OPS is almost 70 points higher than Jeter’s, on the strength of a slugging percentage that’s 94 points higher, and Guillén has 20 more RBI in 7 fewer games. But again, I start from the premise that the All-Stars should be the guys who are playing the best right now, not the guys who are simply most popular. (The latter, with a few notable exceptions, tends to favor the best teams even more to the unfair exclusion of guys who are having great seasons on otherwise bad teams.)
As to Morneau? He’s back today, not out indefinitely.
I agree in some ways with the criticism that I put too much emphasis on run production, and I suppose I could re-figure it using OPS instead, and see how it would differ. Also, if I had sophisticated software and direct access to the statistics database, I would impose a 60/40 road/home filter; since home stats tend to be somewhat elevated (especially if “home” = “Colorado”), how a player does on the road is a better estimate of his true value.
With respect to Carlos Lee, you’re grossly mistaken if you think I’m a fan. Kevin and I both refer to him as “the king of the meaningless RBI,” because precious few of those, at least when he was in Milwaukee and Chicago, came at times when the team genuinely needed it (e.g., late in a tie game, or when trailing by a couple late in a game). But this year, his numbers are hard to argue with. Add to that the fact that he’s done this while playing for a truly awful Astros team, and it becomes even more impressive. So as much as I’m not a fan, I had to put him in.
And really, Bonds? The only reason his OPS is so high is because he’s constantly being intentionally (or quasi-intentionally) walked. Admittedly, this says a lot about his ability as a hitter, but who wants to go to the All-Star game to watch a steroid-laced superstar draw three walks? I can at least understand the Griffey suggestion, since he’s having himself a fine year on an otherwise awful Cincinnati team. (And it would be fun to have him and Adam Dunn in the Home Run Derby.)
Soriano is another good suggestion. His slow start hurts his overall numbers, but he has indeed been on fire of late. I suppose a better analysis would have put more emphasis on recent performance, maybe valuing the last twenty-five games somewhat higher than the first fifty.
Comment 6/28/2007
Forgot to mention Ichiro. He’d be a worthwhile replacement for Sheffield if your goal were to use him as a leadoff hitter. He’s tied for the AL lead in stolen bases at 22, and I hadn’t factored that in. But he trails two of the three guys I picked in OBP, and all of them in OPS. So yeah, I could see replacing Sheffield with Ichiro, if for no other reason than Sheffield’s a dick. Although, if you’re going to emphasize stolen bases and OBP, you’d then have to look at the Angels’ Reggie Willits, who has four fewer stolen bases in nine fewer games, and a higher OBP than Ichiro. I still think Ichiro is the better pick there, but it’s not by as much as you might think.
Comment 6/28/2007
Things have changed quickly with Morneau. But he is not playing the field, just DHing, so he’s really only half back.
Jeter does trail Guillen in power numbers (Jeter is considerably below career average in power this half year, Guillen is considerably above), but he is, in my estimation, the embodiment of an all star. Great, consistent offense, solid fielding, and a team leader. Comparing the RBI numbers of a #2 hitter on a team that hasn’t had a legit leadoff hitter all year (not to mention extreme weakness at the bottom of the order) with the RBIs of the #5 hitter on the most prolific offense in baseball is at best a tenuous way to judge talent. Put it this way, if I could choose between the two guys to play on my team (in lieu of my current guy, who is the worst SS in the Majors this year by far) I would go with Jeter without question.
Comment 6/28/2007
Point taken, and Jeter is fielding slightly better than Guillén this year, but note that it’s not just about RBI. Guillén leads Jeter in OPS by a sizeable margin, which isn’t directly related to run production at all.
Over the long-term, I’d probably pick Jeter over Guillén as my SS as well (although salary considerations might make me lean toward Guillén even there), but the All-Star game is supposed to be this year’s all stars, in my opinion.
Comment 6/28/2007
(…and, upon a second look, Guillén’s numbers have been steadily improving over the last three seasons, while Jeter’s have been steadily declining. So maybe he’s not the better long-term bet…)
Comment 6/28/2007
All good points. Have you guys seen this amazing all star commercial yet?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MoMDKLFKEuk
Very cool. Wonder how long ago they picked those guys to be in it. I mean, Andruw Jones, really?
Comment 6/28/2007
Salary considerations? I’m not familiar with that term. I do agree that Jeter probably on the down side of his career. I suppose one reason I like him so much is I have feared him for so long. And yes, Sheffield is a dick, and an ignorant dick at that, whereas Jeter is 100% class.
As for lineup positions, it is difficult to factor that into an all star selection since fielding positions do not map directly into lineups. However, I think I do tend to evaluate fielding positions based on traditional concepts. If you want to be an all star at first, you better have good slugging numbers. Same at third. Not so much up the middle. And generic outfielder selections make it difficult to give appropriate weight to speed vs arm strength and accuracy. All of which is why I have never actually filled out an all star ballot, but spend hours daydreaming about who I would like on my team.
Here’s an interesting exercise. Assuming your team has a clearly defined nemesis - which is probably easier for me and the rest of the Nation than it is for anyone else, which three players could that team least afford to lose to the 60 day DL? I’m thinking eliminate the nos 1 thru 3 starters on any team and they are toast. Except for maybe Tampa Bay or the Rangers since they don’t have a number 1 thru 3 to begin with.
Comment 6/28/2007
I know he’s been out, but what’s wrong with Morneau as a selection?
Also, I hate to be the bearer of inconvenient truths, but there has not been a single day when Ichiro Suzuki woke up a better baseball player than Gary Sheffield. I wish it weren’t the case, but it is.
Gary Sheffield’s career OPS+ is 145; that is ridiculous. That number is higher than Justin Mourneau’s last year in his MVP campaign. Derek Jeter has put up only one season above that mark. It is 10 points higher than Ichiro’s best single season mark and 24 points above Ichiro’s career mark (and maintained over twice as many games). Being the best defensive RF (now a top-tier defensive CF) and a very good baserunner closes the gap some, but the offensive gap is just too wide to overcome. Point blank, Sheff is a monster at the plate.
OPS which begins to show the weaknesses of Ichiro’s offense, past the shiny BA, ironically OVERrates him, offensively. So many of his hits are infield hits that don’t advance runners multiple bases that they really function as walks. Hits are double-counted in OPS b/c they are counted as SLG and OBP. This values a single twice as much as a walk. Linear weights tell you, though, that a walk is really .72 of a single. So, OPS undervalues walks and overvalues hits. Ichiro doesn’t walk and puts together a lot of singles that function as walks. He actually cheats the system.
All that said, I am a huge Ichiro fan.
As for Bonds, the most important thing a player can do is not make outs. Barry Bonds doesn’t make outs. His discipline to not go out of the zone and take those very valuable walks over and over is an understated testament to him as a player. He is something like 6th in all time plate appearances and somewhere in the mid 30’s in outs made. There are guys in the Hall of Fame who have made, literally, a thousand more outs than Bonds in fewer plate appearances.
Also quickly on the Colorado thing, it is worth noting that when “adjusting” Colorado players’ stats, you might want to remove away games other players play at Colorado. Non-Rockies get Coors games lumped into their away games, so if you are “doubling” road splits, now non-Rockies get the Coors advantage. It is somewhat significant, especially in-division. The advantage is also mitigated somewhat by Colorado playing lots of road games in Petco and Dodger Stadium, two of the worst hitters parks in the league.
Comment 6/29/2007
Well, it’s a bit of a stretch to say Ichiro does not walk. He has career walk contribution close to .05 whereas Sheffield has .1, so he walks half as much as Sheff, not not at all. And of course the fact that he steals bases at 4X the clip Sheff does is not factored into his slugging percentage but contributes to his offensive production. Stealing bases – and the threat of stealing bases – can be huge. Anyone who remembers the 1967 World Series can attest to that. Of course, being a Red Sox fan, I have a slightly fonder memory of a particular stolen base in game 4 of the ALCS in ’04…
The two players are different, so I think the best way to compare them is how good are they relative to their peers. The list of leadoff hitters better than Ichiro over the last six years is pretty short - zero in my book. Sluggers? Heck, just based on your career OPS+ criterion, there are nine active players better than Sheffield. Defensively there is no contest, six gold gloves to none.
As for Ichiro never waking up as a better player than Sheff, let’s look at the current ESPN player rating for each, which is a pretty comprehensive stat. Ichiro is in the lead as of today. He also leads in WARP for 2007. How about VORP in 2004? Sheffield was good at 63.4. Ichiro crushed him with an 80.9. Who would you rather have had in 2006? Injuries are tough, but when you can’t play you can’t play. So Ichiro is a clear choice in 2006. So for the last 3 1/2 years, he rates higher.
Look at WARP over the past 7 years, Ichiro is better. Look at career WARP, Ichiro is better. You might think Sheffield has always been a better player, but the most sophisticated statistics don’t back you up.
Concerning ball park adjustments, would you rather face a great pitcher in Colorado or any pitcher on Tampa Bay or Texas at Petco? My point being in any given year, I think the pitching strength within the division - and the actual matchups a team faces - results in a much larger skew than does a home park. This just a hypothesis; I could be wrong.
Comment 6/29/2007
Gimme Sheff in his prime, over Ichiro, everyday of the week. Sheff is also 38; let’s see how Ichiro produces at 38 when his legs aren’t his greatest weapon anymore.
Ichiro’s 2004, even with the glove and the speed, isn’t anywhere in the area code of Sheff’s best season, 1996.
.314/.465/.624! Sorry, Ichiro could be Mays with the glove and Henderson on the bases, and he still couldn’t close that gap. In fact, Albert Pujols hasn’t even put up a 190 OPS+ season, like Sheff’s (I’m cheating a little, Phat Albert put up a 189 in 03).
BTW, Frank Thomas was 170-plus for the his first eight seasons. I love how people talk about Pujols being unprecedented, as if we didn’t just see a 1B outproduce him less than 10 years earlier…
And, you want to talk about comprehensive and advanced stats for Sheff, how about over 400 career Win Shares? 28th all time in THT’s Win Shares Above Bench. Ichiro is actually leading the league this year in Win Shares, and that has a lot to do with the move to CF. Ichiro might have a chance in the comparison with Sheff if he began as a CF (though, I’m not too much of SABR junkie to not recognize that he had the talent to do so the whole time, and I do give him credit for that).
The point is that a player’s value is disproportionately skewed toward what he does in the batter’s box. The fact that Ichiro is very good there, and tremendously
good outside of it, just can’t make up for the fact that Sheff is a historically great contributor in the most important facet of any player’s game. Using the base running argument is kind of like trying to introduce foul shooting as a key component of an argument that Chauncey Billups is better than Lebron James.
I also don’t distinguish between spots in the batting order. It doesn’t matter to me because I don’t evaluate based on counting stats anyway. Batting order slots are an artificial distinction. The goals for every player are the same in the box - don’t make an out, and then there’s a hierarchy of positive outcomes.
I give The Rick no extra props for being “the best lead-off hitter of all time.” All that means to me is being the best hitter of all time who was not good enough to hit in the middle of the order (though he actually was, Ichiro isn’t). And, stealing bases in front of the middle of the order guys increases the detriment of getting caught, BTW. Simultaneously, it decreases the potential benefit when the guys in the box are more likely to hit for extra bases anyway.
Barry Bonds started his career as a lead-off hitter, know what happened? He became the best hitter in the game and so they had to move him.
Here’s a question for you, Ted. I’d be interested to hear your views, in light of the high esteem you have for Ichiro’s out of the batter’s box skills? How strong an argument do you think Joe Morgan has for being the best 2B of all time, better than Hornsby (and to give all the contenders courtesy, Collins). This is a pretty “famous” question in terms of people’s perspectives on player evaluation.
I’ll stop here, and resist my urges to type forever. It’s so great to discuss sports with a crowd on the intellectual level of those here.
Comment 6/30/2007
You know, I didn’t even think of this earlier when I read your post, but, are you touting the ESPN Player Rating stat?
This one?
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playerrating
If that’s what you are talking about, I’m not even going to bitch about it actually having Ichiro at 7 and Sheff at 9 (while Sheff is 38 and supposed to be in his decline phase, and Ichiro is enjoying his best SLG season yet). Okay, maybe I’ll bitch a little.
But, there real question is, have you read the formula explanation part? It’s a mess. I predict if he ever saw that methodology page, Bill James would actually get physically ill.
By the way, I’ve heard that Ichiro really can hit for power. I’ve heard his teammates say that he is the most consistent homerun hitter in batting practice. This was also said about Wade Boggs, in his day. Boggs said that he could have hit 20-25 homers a year if he would have been willing to sacrifice some hitting for average and change his approach. This, if true, would be a very interesting factor in Ichiro’s aging process. I’d be very impressed if he, upon getting slower, embraced that and actually became a different type of player as his body changes.
Comment 6/30/2007
Was away for a couple of days…
I referenced the ESPN rating because it attempts to rate all players on a single scale, including pitchers, so I thought it would be a useful data point when comparing a lead off hitter and a slugger. Obviously I give more credence to VORP and WARP.
It is worth noting that I never claimed Ichiro is now better that Sheffield in his prime; I said I would pick Ichiro this year over Sheffield. I later used some stats over the past seven years to counter your statement that Sheffield has been a better player every day. I don’t see how you can use age as a supporting stat in this discussion. If we can discount stats due to age in our all star selection, I’m swapping out Ichiro and inserting Ted Williams. Factor age into his stats and he is still the best outfielder ever
Sorry, but I really have never followed the NL and so I have no opinion on Joe Morgan, other than to say he won’t make it into the HOF a second time as an announcer. I will say that different teams in different leagues in different eras play the game different ways, so it is very difficult to compare players who have different skill sets. No doubt you would pick Soriano over Morgan if they were playing 2B in the same year… For my money, the most thrilling second baseman I ever watched was Robbie Alomar. In his fairly short prime, he was a great player.
One more thing. As you don’t differentiate between the skills of a lead off hitter and a cleanup hitter, do you take the same approach with pitchers? If so, you must think closers are a joke, yes?
Comment 7/2/2007
Well, in terms of the All Star game, the fact that they are taking six from the NL is a joke (especially since one of them, Fuentes, has been demoted from his job - he’ll get it back though).
I think closers are just misused. I think that one the reasons the Tigers’ bullpen was so successful last year was that they used their pitchers in the most beneficial way possible (although, perhaps inadvertently).
I think the line-up analogy is actually more like differentiating between #1,2… starters. It’s arbitrary and contextually dependent. Most simulation studies show that line-up switching it is barely even noticeable in a team’s yearly run output. The Sox could hit Lugo third and Papi 8th, it likely wouldn’t result in the Sox scoring any more than 6-8 fewer runs over the course of the entire season.
You want your best reliever in the game when the game is at its point of highest leverage. Two on, no out, up by one - Zumaya or Jones? That’s a no-brainer. Zumaya will preserve more leads in those kind of spots than Jones will blow bases empty beginning the ninth save situations. If Zumaya was closing, Jones would have coughed up so many of those leads that it wouldn’t have even mattered if Zumaya shut the door every time in the ninth - they’d still be in the hole.
So, that’s my perspective on closers. Teams who have two relievers, both of whom are elite level rarely cough up games after the seventh. Look to the Yankee dynasty, or today to K-Rod and Shields in Anaheim.
I love Teddy Ballgame he is probably my favorite all-time player, but as for the best OF ever, I believe some guys named George and Willie may have something to say about that. Taken at face value, he’s behind Bonds too.
I think, all things considered, Morgan was the best player of the 70’s and probably the second best 2B of all time. I’m sympathetic to his argument against Rajah, but he still falls a bit short. His 75-78 was better than any stretch Hornsby ever put together, including the five seasons in which Rajah averaged a batting average of over .400.
Joe Morgan 1976 is one of the greatest seasons of all-time, by any player. Think about it. He’s a middle infielder in the midst of a stretch of five straight Gold Gloves, who leads the league in OPS by over .100 points (lead the league both in SLG and OBP) and goes 60/69 on the basepaths. Not to mention, he’s reputed to be a Jeter-esque intangible player.
Regarding Sheff and Ichiro, I’m just throwing some stuff out there. Both happen to be great, Hall of Fame level, players. It just so happens one is overrated, and the other is serially shortchanged.
Comment 7/2/2007
On line-ups, I have to wonder how complete those simulations are. Do they take into account all the ancillary factors that come into lineup design? In an extreme case, if you bat Bonds 8th, I will wager my entire bank account that the team run total will decrease by more than 6 to 8 runs.
On closers, I agree that a closer should be used to record the highest leverage outs. However, until the game is over and one is looking at the box score, that is a purely theoretical exercise (and it remains somewhat theoretical even after the game since retroactively altering events during the game introduce a level of uncertainty to all subsequent events. You can’t use your closer in more than about half the games, so you need to be judicious in his use. To use him in a game you are ultimately going to lose is foolish – unless he needs to get some work in. Only in relative blowouts do you have good early visibility into the final result in early to mid innings, and in blowouts, the high leverage outs have already come and gone. And of course we can’t even include early innings in the mix, because pulling the starter early taxes the bullpen – and pisses of the starter.
Also, high leverage outs don’t always come in groups of three, and obviously you only want your closer o to face three to five batters and not bridge innings. So two outs, bases loaded, #9 AL hitter up and ahead by one in the 8th is pretty high leverage, but so will be the ninth with the top of the order coming up.
Closers say that they pitch best when the game is on the line, and that can only truly be said in the bottom of the ninth. They might not be psychologically ready to pitch if you bring them in in the seventh. Not to mention the impracticality of having them warmed up and ready to go throughout the game. High leverage can appear and disappear with the result of a single at-bat, so unless I have my best reliever stay warm throughout the game, it is impossible to be in a position to even consider using him at a moment’s notice.
All of which goes a long way to explaining why closers are used as they are.
I think the situation that most closely maps to your idea of using the closer in high leverage situations is late, tied, at home. Under those conditions, the manager never has the luxury of using his closer in a true save situation. That has to be one of the more difficult situations for a manager to be in.
Comment 7/3/2007
I think the mental preparation aspect of at what point in a game a closer is ready to pitch is largely media-contrived BS. If this is really the case, somebody needs to earn a Ph D. off it, because it a huge shift in human psychology that happened at some point between Goose Gossage and Billy Wagner.
The real reason managers don’t bring in closers in these situations is that they are (rightfully) afraid that they will get crucified in the press if their non-closer goes on to blow it in the ninth.
These line-up studies are done by simulating thousands of seasons worth of games for various batting orders. The variance is almost entirely due to how many ABs a lead-off hitter will have in a season as opposed to the situations your specific hitters come to the plate in.
So, moving Bonds down in the order doesn’t influence his production, so much as it decreases his overall ABs (chances to help the team) and gives more ABs to a player more likely to make an out.
If Shawn Green succeeds at not making an out 35% of the time and David Wright succeeds at not making an out 38% of the time, what is the total result of moving them around - considering that in order to score in baseball you need a series of mathematically unlikely events to occur in succession, or close there to?
If the Sox were batting Manny 7th, moving him up to fourth, would be like Tara Reid deciding not to blow a guy once, a hardly significant change in her overall likelihood to catch an STD.
Hindsight is 20/20, and it is not always which outs were the biggest (which is why it is not always so easy to tell which ABs were “clutch”) and that is a good point. All I’m saying is, if we’re in Game 7 of the World Series against the Red Sox and Papi is up with second and third and two outs, trailing by one - I want Billy Wagner in NOW! We’ll cross the ninth inning when we get there.
That’s the purpose of “specialists” they can provide closer-like efficiency for a key out in a specific situation - and you don’t have to expend your closer to get it.
Comment 7/3/2007
Well, the 7th game of the World Series is the only game of the season where there is no forward thinking required, so that’s a very particular case. But let’s say you do pull your ace starter in the 3rd inning and put in your closer to get one out. You might have increased your odds a bit for that one out, but you have reduced them for the next 12 to 15 innings, so I’m going to say it was a bad move on balance.
Does your last paragraph above not contradict your basic premise? On one hand you say use the closer earlier, on the other hand you identify an acceptable alternative. I’m confused.
Bottom line, and I mean no disrespect, you seem to favor opinions that go counter to accepted practice. Perhaps you are more knowledgeable than all the GMs, managers, bench coaches, pitching coaches, etc that play for the 30 pro teams. Or, maybe, just maybe, the 100s of guys that have invested 30 to 50 years of their life in the sport actually know what they are doing.
I’ll take a team with a solid 1 thru 5, a great setup man and a great closer, and I’ll use the setup man in the 8th because that is when he will be mentally prepared to go, and I’ll use the closer in the 9th for the same reason. On days when the closer is not available, I will tell the setup guy he will close if required. Baseball players are, in general, extreme creatures of habit. It comforts them to be in a routine. As a manager, I’m going to respect that as best I can.
As for lineups, again, the guys who live the game for decade after decade think there is a reason to have a fast guy who sees a lot of pitches and has a high on base percentage bat first and, in general, the guy with the highest slugging percentage bat 4th. Maybe it doesn’t matter, and maybe you can drive in the same number of runs regardless of the number of base runners on when you come to bat, but I am skeptical. A quick data point - as of today, looking at the top 10 RBI guys in MLB, four bat 4th, four bat 3rd, one bats fifth, and one bats sixth. None bat 1, 2, 7, 8, or 9. Maybe that’s a coincidence, but I think not.
Comment 7/3/2007
Well, I’m not saying that I am a genius. What I am willing to say is that many of the successful teams are increasingly adopting approaches similar to the one I hold.
I mean, isn’t the bulk of the content on this site evidence that the people in power to make decisions (often) clearly don’t know best, or act to protect their own interests by doing what they can to maintain the barriers set up to make sure their positions and appointments are limited to an exclusive circle? Moneyball says it the best, in what other multi-billion dollar industry do the key figures make decisions based on “gut,” “hunches” and “intangibles?”
If Willie Randolph doesn’t know that runners on in the 8th of a one run game is more important than the tabula rasa ninth, he should be fired, period! If you run a major league baseball team and have never looked at a run expectancy table, you should be fired.
Taking your starter out in the third to bring in your closer for a key out is an extreme example. That’s just silly. I’m talking about instances when your team is obviously in a high-leverage situation in a later inning that is not the ninth. If you have a great set-up man, then much of this is moot. But, most teams don’t.
Back to the batting order. RBIs are a team stat. They are opportunity driven. In 2004, Andruw Jones drove in 128 runs while hitting .209 with RISP. This is a really good article about putting RBI into perspective: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/printarticle/confessions-of-an-rbi-fanatic/
So, yeah, it is no coincidence. And, a fast guy with good OBP will score tons of runs when there are boppers in the middle, Jeter, Sizemore, et al. I would love to see a study that shows how many times Bagwell drove in Biggio during their time together.
The problem is the balance. Juan Pierre is a terrible OBP guy, with tons of speed. He is an awful leadoff hitter. But, when he does get on, he’s good at scoring. Travis Hafner gets on base 10% more often than Pierre, but probably wouldn’t score every time Pierre would (and would probably cause more DPs - though if Pierre starts getting caught stealing a lot, the gap starts to shrink rapidly). But, of course, Travis Hafner in the lead-off spot removes a big bat from the hear of the order, and guarantees that at least once a game, he gets up with nobody on. On the flip side, you give the most ABs to one of the guys who is best in the game at not making outs.
Where’s the balance? How much speed do you sacrifice for more OBP, how much OBP are you willing to sacrifice for speed?
Rickey Henderson is known for his speed. But, he had power too, and was in the league leaders in OBP every year. The speed is great, absent the other skills, you are Vince Coleman. With very good other skills, you are Tim Raines, and with great other skills you are Rickey Henderson.
Raines deserves serious HOF consideration, BTW, I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes one-and-done.
Comment 7/5/2007
I’m not sure what you were addressing in your last post, but, to bring this to closure, I will summarize my positions as follows:
1) Ichiro is an excellent choice for AL all-star outfield this year.
2) It is logical to position players in the lineup based on their strengths, and by doing so you will net more runs than if you do it randomly.
3) It makes no sense to use a closer in the first inning under any circumstances, it makes complete sense to use him in the ninth in a save situation, and there is a rapidly decaying curve connecting those two data points.
I think we are probably pretty close to agreement on these points, with one or the other of us making a previous off-hand remark that lead to a focus on differences rather than consensus.
Comment 7/5/2007
Yes. We largey agree. I post my caveats.
1) Agree fully
2) Agree again. Not all teams maximize this though. Luckily for them, “maximizing” yields considerably fewer extra runs than one is inclined to think.
3) Agree. My only caveat here is that the fact that a using a closer in “a save situation” is perfectly reasonable expenditure of resources doesn’t mean that it was even the “best” time to use him in that given game. The current use pattern is not so much bad, as it is conservative. All saves are not created equal, and even in a game in which a save is recorded, there is no guarantee that the most important late inning outs were recorded by the closer.
Comment 7/5/2007
I agree with your added clarification on #3.
Comment 7/5/2007