Not Their Year
Posted by
tgirsch
Reality is a harsh mistress.
My Brewers are crashing down to earth. After leading the NL Central nearly all season, and by as many as 8.5 games as recently as early June, they’re about to cede the division lead to the red-hot Cubs. What’s the reason for this nose dive? It seems to me that it’s all about youth, inexperience, and inconsistency, with a dash of crummy pitching (as usual).
This weekend’s four-game series at St. Louis was a microcosm of how things have gone since June. The Brewers opened the series with a 12-2 thumping of the Cards. Then, in the first game of a split doubleheader, they blew a 6-0 lead (which was 6-4 entering the bottom of the ninth, and in which the Brewers scored all their runs in the first three innings), ultimately losing 7-6. They lost the second game 5-2. They closed the series on Sunday afternoon by blowing a 5-0 lead and lost 9-5. What should have been a 3-1 road series win, or at the very least a split, became another 1-3 series loss.
Buttressing the theory that youth and inexperience are to blame is the Brewers’ Jeckyll-and-Hyde road-home differential. At home, the Brewers are an NL-best 37-16; it’s the second-best home record in the majors. On the road, however, they are an abysmal 21-32; only the Pirates, Astros, Rangers, and Devil Rays are worse. What’s the biggest difference between a road game and a home game? Pressure.
Mind you, I’m not totally writing off the Brewers just yet. In a weak NL, a playoff spot is still a realistic possibility, especially if they continue to play so well at home. In fact, since I’ve vowed to bankrupt myself to get to the games if they make the playoffs (not to mention my promise to pee my pants), it wouldn’t surprise me if they did make it. They’ve certainly got the offensive firepower, and that will only get better if Ricky Weeks ever busts out of his slump.
But it’s clear that while the Brewers are finally a good team, they’re not yet a great team. Less than ideal, but after 25 years of mostly terrible baseball, I’ll take what I can get.
[P.S. Before anyone says it for me: “Waaaaah!”]
The future is bright in Milwaukee.
Six of their eight position players are under 27 years old. The two that aren’t are a corner OF - an easy to fill position, and a C- a position that needs only defensive competence and leadership, considering the Brew Crew’s offensive firepower.
Cordero is pretty good at the back end. Linebrink should help. I like Wise too. Their bullpen could certainly be worse.
Their biggest problem is that they have one of the best pitchers in the game, but they can’t rely on his health. Knowing that your ace will probably miss time is a problem, and it makes random injuries to your Chris Capuanos that much more detrimental. Capuano could be very good, btw, if he could improve his control - at 28 though, it seems less likely to happen every year.
Gallardo has looked good so far, and he can live up to the hype over a full season and Sheets can manage to stay healthy, the Brewers look to be the real deal. They were my pick to win the NL Central this year, and I still think they’re about even money to do so.
FWIW, Milwaukee actual record is a perfect match for their pyth projection, so far.
You just have to hope that A-Rod doesn’t come to Chicago.
I’d love Mitchell and Ness to make some more Brewers gear. I’d rock the hell out of an ‘82 Cooper or Ogilve - or maybe even a Ted Simmons. A late 80’s Higuera would be sweet too.
Comment 7/30/2007
Not something I recommend, but I’m going with the Cubs. With Sheets out for another month or so, I don’t see how the Brewers can hold them off. Of course I also don’t see how the Red Sox can hold off the Yankees, and they have an 8 game lead as of today…
I would be shocked, shocked if A-Rod ended up in Chicago. I think he will be playing in Yankee Stadium or under the California sun.
Comment 7/30/2007
Thanks for breaking your silence on the Brewers. I am happy they are becoming a good team. Keep up the Brewers blogging. I am interested in your perspective.
Comment 7/31/2007
That was some game last night.
Both teams blew a bunch of chances to win. The Mets couldn’t get another one in with the bases loaded in the 7th and one out.
In the 8th though, we see a perfect example of one of my reliever usage peeve. In the 8th, Heilman stays on from the 7th. Hardy leads off with a hit, and Braun flies out. Then, Wille brings in Feliciano to face Fielder, who proceeds to hit him. 1st and 2nd one out. Then we have to bring in fucking Mota to hold a one run lead with two runners on… Raise your had if you knew that was not going to happen.
There are two options that are better than bringing in Mota. First, let Feliciano stay in to face Hall - even without the platoon advantage, he’s gotta be better than Mota. Or, you could have brought Wagner in at any point in that inning when you had the lead. You could have brought him in when one of the most dangerous left-handed hitters in the game (did you see those foul homers in the 13th?) came up with the tying run on. Or, you could have even done so Feliciano hit Fielder and the tying run was in scoring position.
Instead, the Mets play 13 innings, only to lose without their best reliever throwing a single pitch, bringing in a starter and their mop-up man, who ultimately gave up the walk-off dinger, along the way.
Wagner comes in to face Fielder in the 8th, that’s the game and Tommy’s got 300. Even if Feliciano has to pitch the ninth - its against the bottom of their order with a clean slate…
Comment 8/1/2007
Well, you’re assuming Wagner gets Fielder out. Maybe he does, maybe he doesn’t. But, to your point, it’s almost certain that he doesn’t hit him.
Look at the bright side: Wouldn’t it be sweeter to get 300 against the Cubs, a former team?
Comment 8/1/2007
Just looked it up. Fielder is 0-for-1 lifetime against Wagner, having struck out the only time he faced him in 2006.
Comment 8/1/2007
Of course having Wagner ready to pitch in that high leverage situation would have required seeing into the future…
Comment 8/1/2007
And, just by run probability, a fresh inning is a bigger threat than man on first, one out (but I will grant place in lineup reverses this in this particular case).
Comment 8/1/2007
Glavine never pitched for the Cubbies, you’re confusing him with Maddux.
Regardless of whether Wags would have gotten Fielder out, that’s impossible to know, when the NL homerun leader, who happens to be lefty, comes up late in the game with his team down and a runner on, you want Billy Wagner pitching to him, if he’s on your team.
Now, granted Feliciano has crippled lefties all year. My point is not that they had to bring in Wagner - but that they had two innings with a one run lead to distribute amongst their three best relievers (Heilman already having pitched one). If you are going to bring in Feliciano, you gotta keep him in until the ninth - let him face the righty. Why bring in a worse pitcher after the situation has become more dire.
Bringing in Wagner after Fielder got him would have been trouble, because you would have been asking for five outs. Otherwise you have to close the game, presumably with a one run lead, and your three best relievers would be ineligible.
FWIW,
Righties’ BA against:
Feliciano: .209
Mota: .263
The ghost of Tony LaRusa strikes again…
Comment 8/2/2007
To clarify, bringing in Wagner was one option. I don’t have a problem with showing confidence in Feliciano - he deserves that chance. Either way though, you want whoever you bring in to pitch to more than one hitter; you want that guy to be able to finish the inning.
Comment 8/2/2007
Any commentary on the new home run king?
Comment 8/8/2007
Jeff:
See front page.
Comment 8/8/2007