The “Not Clinton” Problem
Posted by
tgirsch
As you may have read by now, Kevin has come out for Edwards as his preferred candidate. In some ways, I’m inclined to agree. I’m still back-and-forth between Obama and Edwards, and I suspect I’m not alone in this feeling. On the surface, I like Edwards better on policy, but I also can’t shake the feeling that Obama (who I also like on policy, just not as much) will ultimately make a better, more electable candidate in the general (and don’t ask me why I get that feeling, because I haven’t been able to put my finger on it — something to do with the fact that he’ll be more appealing to the “median voter,” I suppose, but I don’t know why I think that, either…).
The problem I have, however, is a deeply-rooted fear that there are a lot of people, like me, who put Obama and Edwards as #1 and #2 (or vice versa), with Clinton as a distant third, and that those people will in effect split the “not Clinton” vote, allowing Clinton to get the nomination with a plurality. I don’t think that’s a good thing.
Don’t get me wrong: I’d still take Clinton over anyone in the GOP field; she’s just far from my ideal candidate, for many of the reasons Kevin pointed out. Plus, there’s the pre-existing bitch/hate narrative that exists, fairly or unfairly, that you just know the media will seize on in a general.
In a perfect world, we’d have instant run-offs, even in the primaries, such that this wouldn’t be a concern. But we don’t live in a perfect world. And as it is, I don’t know how to fix it. But I do fear that if a front-runner between Edwards and Obama doesn’t clearly emerge in an early state, Clinton could win by default. I don’t think that would be good for the Democratic party or for progressivism.
I’ll help you out: ’cause he’s white and his middle name isn’t Hussein. I really think those two issues will turn people away, for right or wrong.
Comment 1/3/2008
You clearly read me exactly backward; I think that Obama is the more electable of the two candidates in the general, not Edwards. Obama is not white and his middle name is Hussein. So I still can’t put my finger on exactly why I think that.
I agree with you that the race/name thing will turn away some voters, but most (certainly not all, but most) of those voters are already highly unlikely to vote for ANY Democrat, irrespective of name or race.
Comment 1/3/2008
you’re correct. I read that completely wrong. I could have sworn it read: ‘he’ instead of ‘obama’ and i assumed you meant edwards.
Sorry.
Comment 1/3/2008
“Obama is not white”
How white does one have to be to be white? Are you a proponent of the “one drop” philosophy?
Comment 1/3/2008