Caucus Thoughts
Posted by
Kevin
I really blew my predictions, didn’t I?
On the GOP side, things are a mess. I don;t see Huckabee winning New Hampshire. There isn’t the heavy evangelical vote and Huckabee’s brand of Christianist fervor doesn’t play well in independent places like New England. Romney might recover, but Romney was always a compromise, he can win it candidate. now that he has show he cannot win it, why would anyone vote for him? That might mean McCain has the edge, but McCain is not well liked by the GOP base even outside evangelical circles and he will have to compete for independent voters with Obama and, to a lessor extent, Edwards. Thompson doesn;t appear to want it and Paul is still a minor candidate despised by the establishment, though he does probably have enough money to at least make some noise in New Hampshire. My guess is that someone beats Huckabee in New Hampshire, but I’m not entirely sure who.
On the Dem side, Obama pulled of something quite remarkable. He won in large part becasue he brought young and new voters inot the caucuses, something that no other campaign has ever really been able to do. The Dems shattered the caucus record and almost doubled the numbers of the Republicans, both good sides for the general. If Obama can continue to inspire these new voters to come to the polls, then both he and the Dems will do very well in November and beyond.
Edwards also did very well. He finished ahead of the establishment candidate based on a populist message and did it while being enormously outspent by Clinton and Obama. He also had almost no press and what press he did get was very hostile and mocking. Coming in second under those circumstances is pretty remarkable. Win or lose from this point out — and he is obviously not in a good position to win — Edwards has done very well. His candidacy has moved the Democrats to the left on the environment, the war, and health care (his plans on all of these matters were much more aggressive than Obama and Clinton’s and they adjusted theirs to move closer to his) and even rhetoric — both Clinton and Obama have adopted some of his rhetorical themes in the last couple of weeks and he has even gotten Obama to move off his “compromise first” rhetoric a little bit. He has proven that there is a hunger for progressive change in the country and he has done so in the face of establishment and press hostility. He has changed the race for the better in a way few candidates ever do.
I am not sure where Clinton goes form here. Her entire campaign has been based around the notion that she is the one most able to get things done. Well, she couldn’t beat a political newcomer and a mad who got the worse press since Gore in Iowa, where organization is everything and she recently had a large lead. She must win New Hampshire, I think, to have any chance, but I don;t see how seh can do that. her main rationale his damaged and she is not inspiring in the way Obama or Edwards, to a lessor extent, is. Edwards psot-Iowa spin contained a great deal about how Iowa voted for change. There is quite a bit of truth in that sentiment and if that is reflective of the electorate as a whole, then the only thing that keeps Clinton form finishing third in new Hampshire would be her huge money lead over Edwards. It would not surprise me if even the money is not enough to keep her ahead of the eventual second place finisher.
I think at this point we may be looking at an Edwards/Obama race. If we are, I’m not sure how long it lasts. I see no reason Obama will not win New Hampshire. He is, at his best, inspiring and since he is well funded, there is no reason he cannot continue to reach people with that inspiration in new Hampshire. If he does win New Hampshire, then I see no reason he doesn’t win South Carolina, and I don’t see how a money-poor Edwards survives that. I hope he does and I hope he stays in the race at least through February 5th. Edwards speaks for the people who are uncertain about the future this country is speeding towards and the present that discounts their work and their lives so heavily in a way no other candidate really does. He has reminded the Democratic Party that those people exist and that they deserve a shot at a decent future as much as any one else. The longer he does that, the better off the party and the country will be.
[…] Lean Left: Edwards also did very well. He finished ahead of the establishment candidate based on a populist message and did it while being enormously outspent by Clinton and Obama. He also had almost no press and what press he did get was very hostile and mocking. […]
Pingback 1/4/2008
Huckabees huge victory among Evangelical Christians just further alienates me from the Republican Party (for which I am currently a member, although I do not know for how much longer).
As a Christian myself, I refuse to go along with the one issue politics of Huckabee and Evangelicals. Huckabee is not on par with many core beliefs of Republicans (myself included) and my own experience with Evangelicals both in general and politically has shown them to be very hypocritical “Sunday Christians”.
Also the Evangelical disdain of Romney simply because of his Mormon faith further disgusts me.
Comment 1/4/2008
“Huckabee is not on par with many core beliefs of Republicans (myself included) and my own experience with Evangelicals both in general and politically has shown them to be very hypocritical “Sunday Christians”.”
What core beliefs is Huckabee not on par with? My own experience with evangelicals both in general and politically has shown them to be very fine Sunday-Saturday Christians. (No, I am not a Huckabee supporter. I have some questions about some of his policies, but it has nothing to do with his religion.)
Comment 1/4/2008
“As a Christian myself” is a very broad term. I have met many people who classify themselves as Christians who have been fantastic people and others who have been absolute idiots. I have also met a number of people who say they are Christians and yet never look at a Bible, pray, or in any other way try to connect with God as their supposed stance would indicate they should.
And from what I have read, it is not Huckabee that is trying to be a “one-issue” candidate, but rather the media and his opponents that are trying to pigeon-hole him as such.
Comment 1/4/2008
“I refuse to go along with the one issue politics of Huckabee and Evangelicals.”
What is that one issue?
Comment 1/4/2008
Morris,
The delusion that America was ever a “Christian nation”.
Comment 1/5/2008
I wasn’t aware that you also post under the name of Carl Strohmeyer. The question was directed at him, not you.
Comment 1/5/2008
Wow. Way to graduate from grade school, there, Morris. You seem to have forgotten that this is a blog. If you wanted to direct your question, you could have actually addressed an individual. Grow the fuck up.
Comment 1/5/2008
[…] • Lean Left: Caucus thoughts: A mess for the GOP, a remarkable win for Obama, and The “Not Clinton” problem […]
Pingback 1/6/2008
“If you wanted to direct your question, you could have actually addressed an individual.”
Hey, Stupid. I quoted the person and asked him to name the one issue. Are you really as ignorant as you seem. It is you who needs to grow up and get a life.
Comment 1/6/2008