A Tie
Posted by
Kevin
It looks as if last night was a tie. I cannot find a definitive delegate count from last night, as some states are still reporting, but it looks like its going to be very close either way. Obama did not get a knock out punch by winning Cali, NJ or Mass, but he did win MO and Del, two upsets, and he did close the gap in the big three states enough to ensure that Clinton did not run away with the lion’s share of those delegates. Clinton did not, generally, keep it close in the states Obama won and she did not blow away Obama in the delegate rich states. So, we are essentially tied.
February looks good for Obama. He is probably favored everywhere but Wisconsin and if he can win in Wisconsin, it might be March 4th before Clinton can get a win. Unfortunately for Obama, the rest of February is delegate poor, so a string of wins would look good but not do much to push Clinton out of the way. Ohio and Texas are both March 4th and Clinton has lead in those states pretty consistently from what I have been able to tell. If someone wins big in both those states, then they would have to be considered the favorite. Can Clinton hold large leads in those states in the face of a string of Obama wins in February? Will voters in Ohio and Texas me impressed with Obama’s momentum and take another look at him? If March 4th is a split, then the next big delegate haul will be Pennsylvania.
Last night settled nothing, and its likely that the rest of this month and March 4th will settle nothing as well. It looks as if we are in this for the long haul.
If CNN.com’s state-by-state results are correct, and if my addition is correct (both questionable prospects), then Clinton won 582 delegates yesterday, against Obama’s 539. So even though Obama won more states (13 to Clinton’s
, it looks like yesterday was a better day for Clinton than for Obama. Still, it was by no means a knockout, and initial polling made it look like Clinton would win by a much wider margin than she actually did.
Comment 2/6/2008
[…] Brendan Loy, Rex Hammock and Lean Left discuss the delegate count on the Democratic side and whether Barack Obama will come out of last night with the most delegates. Share and Enjoy: These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages. […]
Pingback 2/6/2008
Actually, it looks like those were counts in progress, so the final delegate counts still haven’t been decided on the Democratic side. Looks like New Mexico could take quite a while to sort out.
Comment 2/6/2008
Time currently shows Obama taking a slight delegate advantage yesterday (845 to 836), but you’re right, essentially a tie.
Comment 2/6/2008
Hopefully, Hillary will be able to pull out a victory and win the nomination. I expect it to be a while though before she can claim victory. The best scenario is for Barack Hussein Obama and Hillary to be tied going into the convention. I’m pulling for her.
Comment 2/7/2008
What about Edwards’ 26 delegates? To whom do they go?
Comment 2/7/2008
Fred wrote: ” The best scenario is for Barack Hussein Obama and Hillary to be…”
Interesting use of the candidates’ names. Any reason why you chose to use Obama’s full name but only Clinton’s first name? Just curious.
Comment 2/7/2008
They go wherever Edwards wants them to go. If the race is close enough for 26 delegates to matter, he could play kingmaker.
Comment 2/7/2008
[…] • Lean Left: A Tie: Last night settled nothing, and its likely that the rest of this month and March 4th will settle nothing as well. It looks as if we are in this for the long haul. Plus: Clinton or Obama?: …at the end of the day they are just politicians. They are forced to navigate an electorate with diverse and conflicting views and that means compromise and occasionally the failure of policies I hold dear. Also: GOP Losing Evangelicals? (by tgirsh): …it’s never really a victory when people give up on democracy, and lose faith in the process. And that’s clearly what seems to be happening here. […]
Pingback 2/11/2008