The Season Can End Now
Posted by
tgirsch
Who has the best record in the NL, and is tied for the best record in the majors? That’s right, it’s my Milwaukee Brewers!
I don’t expect this to last, of course (I remember last year), but I’m going to savor it while I can. Who knows? Maybe they’ll surprise me. In the good way.
I think you should expect this to last. I’m pretty sure most of the division races have already been sorted out. Baltimore and Florida will probably win their divisions too, and Boston and Detroit will end up in the cellar.
Seriously, Keith Olbermann picked the Brewers to win yesterday. I guess he decided he had to draw the line somewhere and not shill for Obama to win the NL Central…
Comment 4/8/2008
It’s all about the pitching. When Sheets gets hurt again, and when Gagne returns to being Bad Gagne, things could get ugly. As long as the offense can score a lot of runs, we should be okay, though…
Comment 4/8/2008
2 outs, 2 strikes - Corey Patterson - ouch. That’s bad Gagne!
Due to the magic of the MLB Extra Innings package, I can experience your sorrow vicariously in real time…
Comment 4/8/2008
I would have loved to be at the Sox home opener today to see Billy Buck throw the first pitch. He got a standing o when he walked on the field. That must have been great for him. I hope his nightmare is finally over.
Comment 4/8/2008
The bad news is Gagne blew another save. The good news is, the Brewers bailed him out again. Their only loss so far this season wasn’t even close. An ability to bounce back from stuff like that, and to win close games, marks a big improvement over last year. Maybe the team actually learned from the experience. But it’s early…
Comment 4/8/2008
Yeah, Weeks pulled it out for you guys.
The Brewers seemed like they were between a rock and a hard place with their closer spot. Quality closer options don’t go on trees, but when I saw the ungodly offer Cordero got from a non-contender, I was understanding of Milwaukee’s reluctance to match it to retain him.
Of course, this stopped making sense when they dropped $10M per year on Gagne. If they were willing to sign a ten million dollar a year closer in the first place, pony up the extra 2 per (I know it was like a four year contract for Cordero, though) and retain the proven guy.
I understand that the closer market and supply leaves a lot of teams with crappy options, and truthfully, it’s a roster area that a non-contending team need not invest huge money in. But, if you ARE WILLING to drop $10M per on one, you should probably be able to come away with something better than Gagne.
The other option would have been a trade - how hard would it have been to get Matt Capps from Pittsburgh, probably not so difficult (he just got extended, actually). What about targeting an elite middle reliever and converting him - could you put together a package to get Broxton, Betancourt, or somebody like that. Seems like they got the all-over designer monogram print of closers - the worst of all worlds, questionable quality, flashy, and high-priced strictly on the basis on name recognition.
Comment 4/9/2008
It is amazing that Gagne got $10M and Colon (2 seasons removed from a Cy Young) got a minor league contract. I view them as roughly equivalent players in that they both had injuries that resulted in dreadful recent performance, but both have huge potential upside over recent results. So how can it be that Gagne gets $10M and Colon does not even have a major league contract? My prediction is Colon will do more for the Red Sox (he is already hitting 95-96 mph) than Gagme will for the Brewers.
Comment 4/9/2008
Bartolo, or am I forgetting some other Colon?
It will be interesting to see whether Gagne can hold on to the closer’s spot, and if not, whether he can be an effective setup man. Turnbow seemed to improve a great deal when they moved him from closer to 8th Inning Guy
Comment 4/9/2008
Colon just hasn’t been a very good pitcher over the past few years. The Cy Young year was his only good season after ‘03. He won 18 games in ‘04, but with a 5.00+ ERA, so I don’t consider that a good year. And that CYA was a bad decision, in a year that had very few legit candidates. Johan was clearly the best pitcher in the AL that year - though I remember Mariano Rivera was getting some support too. Kevin Millwood actually made his contribution to the “wins are a terrible way to evaluate a pitcher” truism that year, posting a sub .500 record with about 200 innings worth of sub 3.00 ERA pitching.
That being said, Colon’s worth taking a shot on, and probably worth a roster spot on some team out there.
Turnbow is one of these guys who has great stuff, but has control problems. Over his carreer he averages over a K per inning, but over a half a walk per inning as well. There’s also a substantial sample size issue with relievers, especially erratic ones prone to the meltdown. Maybe you have some greater insight than I do because you see more Brewers games than I, TG, but I have no idea which version of Turnbow is going to show up anytime he’s called on.
Comment 4/9/2008
Maybe you have some greater insight than I do because you see more Brewers games than I, TG, but I have no idea which version of Turnbow is going to show up anytime he’s called on.
Nope, no greater insight here. It’s a nailbiter every time he takes the hill. If I were the manager, I’d yank him after the first walk he gives up. He’s either dominant or he’s not, and it’s usually clear which one you’re dealing with after the first hitter he faces.
From what I understand about Turnbow, it’s all about the movement on his fastball. When he has it, he’s unhittable; when he doesn’t, it’s 96 MPH batting practice. When he lacks confidence in his fastball, he throws changeups out of the zone and starts walking guys, and then it’s all over.
Comment 4/9/2008