Baseball Blegging: The Saga Continues
Posted by
tgirsch
UPDATE: I’ve added some baseball-related humor here.
OK, I’m confused. Consider the following inning:
- First batter gets a base hit; advances to second on a balk. Runner on first, nobody out.
- Second batter lays down a sac bunt, advancing the runner to third. One out.
- Third batter grounds out to third, runner stays put. Two out.
- Fourth batter gets a base hit, first batter scores. One run in, runner on first, two out.
- Fifth batter hits a triple, fourth batter scores. Two runs in, runner on third, still two out.
- While sixth batter is up, pitcher throws a wild pitch, fifth batter scores. Three runs in, two out.
- Sixth batter grounds out to second. Three outs.
For that inning, how would you score the pitcher’s line, in terms of runs, earned runs, hits, and errors?
Now consider another inning, same pitcher throwing:
- First batter gets a base hit. Runner on first, nobody out.
- Second batter is hit by a pitch. Runners on first and second, nobody out.
- Third batter lays down a sac bunt to third, runners advance. The first baseman drops the throw from third, and the ball rolls behind him. First batter scores. Runners on first and second, nobody out.
- Fourth batter pops out foul to the catcher. First and second, one out.
- Fifth batter strikes out looking. First and second, two out.
- Sixth batter flies out to deep center. Inning over.
How would you score the line for that inning?
Here’s how I did it:
First hypothetical inning: 1.0 IP, 3R, 3ER, 3H, 0K, 0BB
Second hypothetical inning: 1.0 IP, 1R, 0ER, 1H, 1HK, 0BB, 1HB
Why do I ask? Because these examples a real game, and the official scorekeeper differed from me. His final score showed the pitcher with 4R (which I had) and 2 ER, one fewer than I had. I’m looking all over the place for the second unearned run, and I can’t find it. Digg?
For reference, here’s the box score and the play-by-play. I’m concerned with the bottom of the fifth and the bottom of the sixth.
The run in the 2nd inning is unearned because, had the error not occurred, that runner would not have scored based on subsequent play. He would have been stranded at third. Change the first out of the inning (fourth batter) from a pop up to a deep fly ball out, and the run becomes earned, because runner would have scored based on play subsequent to error.
Moral: unearned runs are not just about number of outs.
Also note, in first inning, if wild pitch was scored a passed ball, it’s an error on catcher and third run is unearned.
Comment 7/21/2008
Ted:
I got the unearned run in the second inning (bottom 6th). It’s the unearned run in the first (bottom 5th) that confuses me. It was scored as a wild pitch rather than an E-2, and actually no error scored in the frame. I could understand if they counted it as an error, but it doesn’t show up in the official tally. (There was an error on the visiting team, but that was an explicitly-listed error in the box, separate from the wild pitch.)
Comment 7/22/2008
On the PBP, it lists the play you listed as a Wild pitch as a passed ball. That would make the last run of the fifth unearned, since a PB is an E2, and the next guy Ks for the last out of the inning, that run wouldn’t have scored otherwise. Here’s the tricky part, there’s always something in this fucking game, passed balls are considered errors fro run scoring purposes, but they’re slightly different and for some reason don’t appear in the line score, so it wouldn’t show up in the tally on the scoreboard. I know - doesn’t make any fucking sense!
Maybe, they just think it’s unfair that the C would have so many opportunities to make errors… I dunno. I’m not necessarily defending it.
It’s also possible that the pitch was originally called a wild pitch and then was changed after the game. You can make scoring corrections up to 24 hours after a game is completed. In the Minors, it usually happens as a result of a pitching coach, or PR guy throwing a fit. Also, there’s plenty of generous stat attribution to highly touted young prospects with trade value (It is what it is, but you didn’t hear that from me).
At the end of the day, the official scorer should be part of the umpiring crew, and not affiliated with the home team. I understand this may be burdensome, logistically, for lower level leagues, but the integrity of the game should be paramount.
Comment 7/22/2008
doh - sorry. Just glanced at your line score and misread it. My note on passed balls was particularly prescient however
Comment 7/22/2008
Ted:
Check you out! So basically, a passed ball is an error on the catcher, except that it’s not.
What a mess!
Digg:
Just so I’m clear, if it had been scored as a wild pitch (charged against the pitcher) instead of a passed ball (charged against the catcher), the run would have been earned?
Comment 7/22/2008
Correct.
Keep up the blegging, especially regarding unearned and earned runs. Then let’s get into the semantics and practice of what is and isn’t an error…Pretty soon, you’ll be ready for DIPS theory. (Defense-Independent Pitching Statistics).
Since scoring rulings are arbitrary (and weird - two Ks then a dropped pop gives a pitcher complete license to give up nine straight subsequent hits w/o being accountable), ERA isn’t nearly the strong predictor of pitching skill we think it is. Even ERA+, which is (at least attempted to be)neutralized for ballpark and offensive context, as it is expressed relative to league ERA, still doesn’t address the strength of one’s defense.
DIPS privileges events in which defenses don’t have any control on the outcome - K,BB,HR. Debate the merits of the theory as a whole, but it seems rather intuitive as it relates to Minor Leaguers. That’s the irony; you have teams pressuring scorers to keep young highly touted arms w/ low ERAs, but only a fool is going to trade for a 19 year old playing among Rookie level talent on the basis of his ERA. Major League fielders gobble up a lot more balls than A ball players do. And, ML players make fewer errors that allow a pitcher who pitched poorly to escape an inning with the runs that scored blamed on the D.
If only allowed one piece of info regarding a young pitcher’s skills, I’ll take K/BB ratio over ERA every day of the week!
Comment 7/22/2008
I’ll field that one. Yes, it would have been earned if it were a wild pitch. Which makes sense. Why should the pitcher’s ERA get a break because of the pitcher’s inability to pitch? It would be a major scoring flaw if a pitcher could clear a guy off third by airmailing a pitch and not get charged with an earned run (although Roger Clemens - and George Brett if he pitched - would probably be the only two that would do it).
Comment 7/22/2008
I agree that ERA is a poor measure. In fact, I think wins are overrated, too. Personally, I’m a fan of the WHIP stat when trying to get a feel for a pitcher’s effectiveness.
I’m also not a huge fan of the K/BB ratio. It’s a good indicator of control, I suppose, but some of the best pitchers don’t strike very many guys out. If you can get them to pop up or ground out, you’ll get them just as out, and you’ll do it without having to throw so many damn pitches. Besides, strikeouts are fascist.
Comment 7/22/2008
Ted:
I agree with the scoring of the wild pitch, in both principle and practice. However, if a passed ball charged to the catcher results in an unearned run (or even in a runner advancing), I think that ought to be scored as E-2. I wonder if the thinking is that an “error” can only result in the fielding of a ball put into play, and a pitch doesn’t count as that. Time for proof by example: If there’s a runner on first, and the pitcher tries to pick off the runner but overthrows the first baseman, allowing the runner to advance, is that scored as E-1, or just a passed ball? If the throw is good, but the first baseman muffs it, allowing the runner to advance, is that scored as E-3, or just a passed ball? Digg?
Comment 7/22/2008
Ted, nice post on #7. But, you forgot Pete Rose.
On the pick-off, the errant throw is an E1. A good throw and a missed catch is an E3. Obviously, only an E though if the runner (or any other runner) actually advances from it.
So, if there’s a PO, and the runner gets caught in a run down, and there’s a bad throw in the middle of the run down (meaning that throw would not end the run down), but that only enables the runner to get back to his original base - that’s no error. There was no benefit from it, in the eyes of the rule book. If the same throw allows him to get to the next base, then it’s an error.
HOWEVER, on the PO or the rundown, if the official scorer determines that the runner was a dead duck and the only reason he’s able to get to a base safely (forward or back to the original), then you award an assist to the thrower, and an error to the receiver - and that guy is then automatically unearned no matter how he may eventually score (because he was supposed to have been erased). A pick off attempt like that would be credited as 1E3, with the runner advancing however far he did.
It’s kinda like your conventional 6E3 grounder. Dropped catch errors are slightly different. In fact, the old adage, you can’t assume a DP is not 100% correct, because the 1B dropping a relay throw on the last leg of the DP is an E - it just doesn’t happen often. You can have a guy who hits into a fielders choice AND reaches on a 4E3 in the 1B drops the throw.
Further idiocy - for some reason I think that batter is spared the GDP as an offensive stat though. It makes no sense, but I think it actually works like that. I remember doing a game once, and a play like that happened. I thought it was a glitch in the software that it didn’t record a GDP for the batter - but I think the rules were checked and the program was correct (probably on the basis of a loophole anyway)
Still there?….
I’m about to run in a few - Mets vs. Phils for 1st place tonight!
Comment 7/22/2008
Sorry para 2 up there is talking about a runner only advancing because of a dropped catch, as opposed to an errant throw:
HOWEVER, on the PO or the rundown, if the official scorer determines that the runner was a dead duck and the only reason he’s able to get to a base safely (forward or back to the original) is because a fielder who was going to tag the runner out dropped the ball then you award an assist to the thrower, and an error to the receiver
…as if this isn’t convoluted enough!
Comment 7/22/2008
digg, I was not aware that Rose was a stats hound.
tgirsch, I agree, I first look at WHIP. Don’t even look at ERA for setup men and closers; their situation wrt runs is so distorted..
Over a career, for a starter, I think wins is a pretty good indicator of success (almost seems silly to point that out).
I’m semi-obsessed with pitch count while a starter is in the game. The game within a game I follow closest is how well my team can run up the pitch count of the opposing starter. Nothing pisses me off more than a one pitch at-bat (other than a one-pitch at-bat that results in a dp). That’s why I love Pedroia. He doesn’t even pretend to be interested in the first pitch. (I will say this about him though, since he is a high ball/fast ball hitter with a huge swing, he will flame out fairly quickly and quite dramatically unless he completely changes his approach.)
Comment 7/22/2008
Ted:
I still think wins are somewhat overrated, and I can explain this stance in two words: run support. You could have a guy who pitches extremely well over a long period, but winds up losing a lot of games 1-0 or 3-2. Look at Randy Johnson’s postseason numbers, for example, or C.C. Sabathia’s year before coming to Milwaukee, for some good examples of why wins don’t really tell the whole story.
As for pitch count, I agree. I think a six or seven pitch strikeout is a better at-bat than a two or three pitch ground out, especially when there aren’t runners involved.
Digg:
I read the rules today on when an error should be scored versus when it should not be scored, and it’s enough to make your head spin! Similarly for the rules on passed balls.
Comment 7/22/2008
tg, note that I said wins over a career is a good indicator. Not a year, and not just in playoffs. In other words, give me big numbers.
Comment 7/22/2008
It’s a good indicator of pitching reasonably well and having the good fortune to be on good teams. You could have a pitcher who has a very long career, and puts up a lot of wins, but also a lot of losses. Nolan Ryan, for example, has over 300 wins, but he also has over 300 losses. Do his 300 wins rightly qualify him as a great pitcher, or just one lucky enough to have longevity? In the win/loss column, John Burkett has similar numbers, if you extrapolate out to a 27-year career.
Wins, to me, are more of a team stat than an individual stat. When the win count starts getting high, it’s more a sign of longevity to me than of anything else. But when I start evaluating a pitcher, especially with respect to expected future performance, wins isn’t very high on my list. With the advent of the “cheap win” and “tough loss” stats (a function of quality starts), that may change, though. Of course, even then, you can use the quality start stat and eliminate the middleman.
Comment 7/22/2008
Ryan was, of course, a great pitcher. I was watching the night he got rushed by Robin Ventura (who was about 20 years younger than Ryan). There has never been a more decisive rejection of a mound charge in the history of the game.
And Ryan was the prototypical high K, high BB pitcher. His wins were not that impressive (when considered in light of his losses), but the magnitude of records he holds makes him great in my mind. In his case, it ain’t always about winning.
(If you have not seen his confrontation with Ventura, you have to track it down. It was so one-sided and effortless, Ryan didn’t even get ejected, even though he landed numerous punches - to Ventura’s zero.
Comment 7/23/2008
Ted:
Ask, and ye shall receive. It’s #1 on their list. You’re right, that’s like a big brother tormenting his kid brother.
So if Burkett pitches the way he’s been pitching for, oh, another 10-12 years, he’ll be a “great pitcher?”
Comment 7/23/2008
Ryan is overrated by the casual fan, IMO. He was a great pitcher, but not on the short list of greats. Many would rank him top 5, I think he’s more of a high-teens, low=twenties, all time. I see no argument for top ten that isn’t based on style over substance (gaudy Ks [while ignoring tons of BBs and WPs) or the flash bulb memory tendency (all the no-hitters).
Anyway, re: Wins.
Baseball is by far the best sport to be interested in if you’re a nerd! Bert Blyleven is, IMO, the most egregious Hall of Fame oversight (with all due respect to Ron Santo and Dick Allen) Blyleven can boast 287 career wins. He can also boast 9 complete game 1-0 losses. Blyleven lost some ridiculous number of games while allowing 2 or fewer runs. His team’s for his career scored something like 4% fewer runs than the league average (even when adjusted for ballpark). That may not seem like a huge deal, but the underlying idea is that this guys pitched on shitty offensive teams his whole freaking career! Things like neutralized wins have been calculated, which basically estimate what a pitcher’s record would be if he pitched with a league average offense behind him. According to such calculations, Blyleven “deserved” something like 325 wins.
Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz were all great, HOF-caliber pitchers, but it doesn’t hurt (from Wins, to ERA, to everything) that from Marquis Grissom to Andruw Jones, they had a Gold Glove CF behind them throughout their entire primes!
Brandon Webb is the most groundball-inducing pitcher in all of baseball. Get rid of the statue known as Troy Glaus at 3B, and bring in reigning Gold Glove 2B Orlando Hudson - Viola, Cy Young Award. These things don’t happen randomly!
Comment 7/23/2008
digg:
Thanks for backing up my hypotheticals with specific examples. But what does Troy Glaus (currently a Cardinal, formerly a Blue Jay) have to do with Brandon Webb (a Diamondback)?
Comment 7/23/2008
Glaus used to be the 3B for the D-Backs. By replacing him at 3B and adding a GG 2B, they dramatically improved the extent to which their defense complimented their pitching staff. If you have a P who induces nothing but groundballs, it seems like it would be a good idea to consider infield defense a high priority when constructing your team.
Comment 7/23/2008
Ahh, the stats page I was looking at only went as far back as three years ago.
Comment 7/23/2008