Why Does the Bailout Start At the Top?
Sep 24
I would really, really like someone to answer that question for me before we go giving Wall Street what it wants. The problem is that largely unregulated financial institutions used sometimes shady deals to sell people mortgage products that they probably could not afford. Other largely unregulated financial institutions then sliced and iced those mortgages into financial products that were then sold almost like stocks or other securities. Now, those unaffordable mortgage products are collapsing in value so the people who own pieces of them no longer know how much those pieces are worth. Since they no long know how much those pieces are worth, they no longer have a good sense of what their balance sheets look like and no one has any idea what those pieces should be bought and sold for. And that means that a large chunk of financial capital has such an uncertain value that its value might as well be zero, so there is an understandable reluctance to use those pieces as collateral or to deal with the financial institutions that have large stakes in those mortgage pieces. And that has lead to what the Fed is calling a credit crisis.
But if that is the case, then giving banks money is not going to solve this problem, is it? At the end of the day, the mortgage pieces are still essentially worthless — only now they will be owned by the Feds instead of by the banks, sticking the taxpayers with all the risks. Why not do something to shore up the value of the mortgage pieces? A lot of people could afford to stay in their houses if they were in more affordable mortgage products –fixed as opposed to adjustable, rates closer to prime rather than sub-prime — so why not start with them? Why not allow credit worthy people in these expensive mortgage products to have those mortgages adjusted to something they can afford. The housing bust winds to a close, most of the mortgage pieces the financial industries own become worth something and the only banks to fail are those that gambled with the most unstable, least deserving mortgages. And it probably doesn’t cost 700 billion dollars.
Now, perhaps there are good reasons for not doing this. I doubt that as the Democrats are trying to insert a proposal that would allow bankruptcy judges to do something similar to what I propose, ( the Republicans oppose it, of course, but this is already allowed for commercial properties and for people with more than one home ), but I am perfectly willing to be convinced otherwise. But it is a telling marker of just how far right our economic policy has lurched that no one in government or the Wall Street press even feels compelled to explain why helping the bankers is a better solution than helping the homeowners whose declining home values and foreclosures are at the root of the problem.
#1 by Christian at September 24th, 2008
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It’s starts at the top because that’s from where all the great things in conservative fiscal policy trickle down.
#2 by Madrocketscientist at September 24th, 2008
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Don’t forget the Default Credit Swaps, which are basically banks making book on how many of those mortgages (and other credit) will fail.
#3 by Ted at September 24th, 2008
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This deserves more effort that I can give it at the moment, but, picking just one element, there is a significant risk to the credit markets right now, and it is a physical impossibility to quickly infuse liquidity in to market by unwinding the mess from the bottom. This omelet is not going back into component pieces for a do-over.
A couple of other quick points. It is not accurate to say the mortgage platforms(s) upon which the looming defaults sit are worthless. In sum they are worth something estimated to be about $700,000,000,000 +/-, and it’s the +/- that’s the killer.
Shoring up the value of the market loosely means the federal government would have to prop up the value of the housing market which is risky at best and real risky when undertaken at a time when the market is still overvalued by most criteria.
I think the best we can hope for is some education (if the gov’t is going to allow new games of chance to be played with the economy, and we can tell a priori that the situation will quickly grow to a “the Fed’s will not be able to allow a complete failure to occur” (ie bailout is implicit part of the game), then there is a hard requirement for the feds to get up to speed and provide oversight to limiter the downside. If unable to do this, then call the game off before it begins. This is S&L redux, and it didn’t have to happen.
#4 by Janusz at September 24th, 2008
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Ted wrote: “This is S&L redux, and it didn’t have to happen.”
No, it didn’t. And like S&L, is a direct result of the fiscal conservatives’ obsession with deregulation, as if this mystical, untouchable deity known as “the market” could correct itself and, if left to its own devices, could do no wrong.
The saddest part of the whole mess is how it will affect the guy in the street. Wall Street had grossly inflated the stock market; the whole ratio between the price of stocks and the profits/worth of a company became completely out of whack. Stocks became about making money in and of itself, not a realistic assessment of a company’s value. Much the same way that the price of property escalated with no regard as to what the property was really worth or how it compared to rentals, for example; and all it did was raise people’s property taxes without the benefit of increasing their assets…they couldn’t “buy up” because all property had become inflated. And now that property values have deflated, peoples’ taxes will…increase. Not only do they have to bail out the big financial companies, but they have a war in Iraq that they will have to start paying for sooner than later. Taxes will increase while peoples’ assets decrease…all accomplished under the watchful eye of the “fiscally responsible Republicans”. I hope the irony isn’t lost on anyone in November.
#5 by digglahhh at September 24th, 2008
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And like S&L, is a direct result of the fiscal conservatives’ obsession with deregulation, as if this mystical, untouchable deity known as “the market” could correct itself and, if left to its own devices, could do no wrong.
The tragic irony is that the people who worship most blindly at the altar of free market capitalism don’t treat the market as mystical or untouchable, and they certainly don’t have enough faith in it to leave it to its own devices. This shit happens because those who most adamantly espouse the virtues of an unfettered market place are the first and most aggressive to manipulate it for personal gain at the detriment of the systems’ overall health and long-term viability. This behavior is positively reinforced by the willingness (eagerness) of the Feds to push the reset button when the kamikaze style of video game playing (inevitably) fails.
I’m no financial guru (I’m stumped on how to invest my money after the vintage Air Jordan market bubble burst), but I know that in interpersonal relationships analogous behavior is pathological.
Would your girlfriend drive you to the bar, pay for you to get shitfaced, scout out a cute MILF to cheat on her with, drop you at the hotel, and then give you a blowjob when you stumble home the next morning? And if she did, how much sympathy should I have for you if you have the balls to complain about being hungover?
#6 by Big U at September 25th, 2008
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I may get slammed for this, but I have a comment and a question.
First the comment: The brokers, investment houses, etc., that were involved in this whole thing should be held accountable. There should be fines, removal of licenses, perhaps even jail time. No golden parachute bailouts, etc.
Now the question (with a comment): Why are the people who so obviously overextended themselves not being held the least bit accountable? I know, I know, they have lost their houses, etc. but all they are getting is sympathy. I have worked my tail off and watched my spending very closely to not put myself in a position such as theirs. I live a frugal life compared to many of my friends, but I could also survive an uptick in the mortgage rates because I bought well within my means, specifically focused on the possibility that future payments could increase.
Now, don’t get me wrong. People who have lost jobs due to downsizing, etc. are not included in my frustration. The ones that bug me are the ones who KNEW they had no way to make the payments once the low-rate or interest only period was over. Those are the ones that, from my perspective, deserve very little sympathy and yet I don’t hear anyone saying they bear responsibilty.
Seems to me that overspending, overselling and stupidity permeates ALL of society and not just the rich greedy financial institutions that everyone seems to hate.
#7 by tgirsch at September 26th, 2008
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Big U:
Why are the people who so obviously overextended themselves not being held the least bit accountable?
You’re joking, right? Up until now, they’ve been the only ones who have been in any way held accountable. I don’t think anyone is arguing that they should get off scot free; just that bailing out some of these homeowners may be the lesser of two evils; and they’d still have to pay, they’d just get the “good fortune” of being able to lock in the lower, affordable rates — not fair to those of us who were smart enough to get fixed rate mortgages, perhaps, but preferable to a glut of foreclosures.
The ones that bug me are the ones who KNEW they had no way to make the payments once the low-rate or interest only period was over.
I feel you here, but only part way. The problem is that no matter how bad those decisions may have been, there are a lot of people who made a lot of money preying on that propensity to make bad decisions. I’m not sure you fully understand just how aggressively bad loans were marketed here in the US. A lot of the irresponsible lenders would hard sell their bad products by saying “just refinance to a fixed rate before the
teaserlow introductory rate expires,” knowing full well that the borrower wouldn’t qualify for a fixed rate mortgage.The hell of it is, the irresponsible lenders are, by and large, long gone, and laughing all the way to the bank. They sold off the bad mortgages as parts of packages before it was clear how pervasive and how bad they were.
Seems to me that overspending, overselling and stupidity permeates ALL of society and not just the rich greedy financial institutions that everyone seems to hate.
But that’s a big part of the point, here. The bailout plan, as originally advertised, only directly benefits the “rich greedy financial institutions.” There was no help at all for the little guy — not even the little guys who are “not included in [your] frustration.”
Last note: As for the people who’ve already lost their houses, that ship has sailed. There’s really nothing this bailout could do for them — they’re already out of the house, and you can’t just put them back.
#8 by digglahhh at September 26th, 2008
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Big U,
To echo TG a bit here. Brokers were financially rewarded for issuing bad loans to people who they knew would not be able to pay. Citigroup handed out copies of Boiler Room as a training video - that’s not a cute Digglahhh hyberbole, that’s the motherfucking TRUTH, that shit actually fucking happened!!
There’s a knowledge gap between the lender and the lending institution, and if that gap is exploited too much the whole system collapses. Why were these people entering agreements, they couldn’t afford - because accredited experts in the field were advising them it was in their best interest to do so! And, it’s not just new customers, these institutions were cajoling people in stable lending relationships to refinance and restructure into these risky, unstable ones. It’s like coercion.
Still skeptical? Join a fantasy baseball league next season. If you read this blog regularly, you’d be thrilled if I then approached you and asked if you would like my guidance running it. Damn if I couldn’t convince you to trade Chase Utley for Luis Castillo and then laugh all the way to the bank ’cause some other guy in your league is paying me double what you are to sabotage your team!
BTW, this whole disaster was Bush-sanctioned, and promoted. It was called “the Ownership Society.”
#9 by tgirsch at September 26th, 2008
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There’s a knowledge gap between the lender and the lending institution, and if that gap is exploited too much the whole system collapses.
I think you mean between the borrower and the lending institution…