I’ll Try To Enjoy It While It Lasts
by tgirschOctober 1st, 2008
On the one hand, I’m thrilled that the Brewers have qualified for the playoffs for the first time since 1982. On the other hand, I don’t think I’m going to get to enjoy it for very long.
For starters, the Brewers pitching, after Sabathia, is pretty bad. There’s no clear #2 starter, especially with Ben Sheets injured (again). Even with the traditional three-pitcher rotations of the playoffs, you’ve got no clear #2 or #3 — there are serious downsides to Bush and Suppan, both of whom are being considered. Gallardo (who gets the game one start this afternoon) looks like a good pitcher, but he’s coming off an injury, and making just his fifth start, and his second since April. (He looked good in his latest start, but that was against Pittsburgh, and he only threw four innings.)
Secondly, as questionable as the starting pitching is, the bullpen is even worse. Two weeks ago, the closer blew a four-run lead with two outs and nobody on in the bottom of the ninth. (You may remember my calm, rational response to that.) So even assuming the starting pitching performs well, any time they have to go to the pen it will be a cover-your-eyes moment for Brewers fans like me.
And then there’s the lineup. Despite boasting Fielder, Braun, and Hart (two of them all-stars), it hasn’t been good. The Brewers are something like 28th in the league with runners in scoring position. How they got to the playoffs with a stat like that is frankly beyond me. They live and die by the home run, and in the playoffs, when the opposing pitching is consistently better, they’re more likely to die that way.
Finally, there’s the opponent: the Phillies owned the Brewers this year, winning five of six games, including a four-game sweep in Philadelphia in September. They’re hot, their lineup is dynamite, and they’ve got two excellent starting pitchers. Not to mention a perfect-for-the-season closer. All this seems to spell certain doom for Milwaukee.
Of course, anything can happen. The Brewers are a streaky team, and if their lineup gets hot at the right time, it may cover over a lot of pitching warts. I just wouldn’t count on it, especially since they had to win 6 of 7 just to get to the playoffs. The trend would seem to be that the hot streak is ending, and they’re ready for a cold streak. As such, I’ll be pleasantly surprised if the Brewers make it to a fourth game. Maybe that’s a quarter century of ingrained defeatism talking, but somehow I doubt it…
I wouldn’t say the Phillies have 2 two excellent starters. They have one excellent starter in Hamels. The wifebeating Myers is a wild card, and Moyer has been good, but he was old enough to smoke a celebratory cigar when John McCain was born. Had you been able to avoid using C.C. on less rest than Ron Jeremy needs between money shots, you’d also have the advantage of (potentially) neutralizing their best pitcher by virtue of the fact that yours is even better! Though on any given day, Hamels can be entirely untouchable.
Your bullpen is certainly weak. Against most teams, the Milwaukee offense can be argued to be superior enough to hit their way through and bludgeon teams to death. The Phillies have plenty of firepower of their own though. I will, however, remind you that their 41-41 closer’s last foray into the postseasonwas characterized by giving up a homer to Pujols that traveled further than the stone’s throw from Palin’s house to the Kremlin, an event Lidge seemed to handle with all the poise and stability of Brian Wilson of the Beach Boys.
I’d also add that if Gallardo is healthy and resembling the pitcher we saw at the close of last year, he’s better than anybody on the Phillies staff not named Cole Hamels. Unfortunately, that’s who he’s matched up against today.
I think the Brewers are in tough.
I really don’t see it happening, but can you imagine the heart attacks at MLB headquarters if Milwaulkee and Tampa make it to the World Series? They would be terrified of low crowds.
My hope (sorry Tgirsch) is for a Boston/Chicago finale. I’m a huge Red Sox fan but the drama of the Cubs winning their first title in 100 years against the team that overcame the Ruth curse would be great.
My prediction? Cubs vs Angels. And when I’m proven 100% wrong, you will know why I never bet.
Big U:
Trust me, if the Brewers made the World Series, crowd turnout would not be a problem. TV ratings are another story. There are no bigger Cubs and Sox fans than the people in Fox’s sports department, for that very reason. (Dodgers would be acceptable, I suppose, but for the West Coast problem.)
Oh, I have no doubt the stadiums would be packed completely and then some. But as you say, TV ratings would really suffer. Not that I care about the TV people. I’d rather see a fun series and I think the Rays and the Brewers would be ALOT of fun.