Baseball Bleg
by tgirschOctober 13th, 2008
Is there any legitimate reason to start Jamie Moyer in the playoffs? Consider: This season, the Phillies are 0-2 when Moyer starts, and 5-0 when he doesn’t. He had one good playoff start (at Colorado of all places) last year, but I can’t imagine that the Phillies don’t have a better option to be the #3 guy. Blanton springs to mind…
Moyer was pretty good down the stretch. In that respect, he’s “earned” his spot in the post season rotation.
As for Joe Blanton, I’m not really sure how he is superior. Ostensibly, Blanton is a fatter, less-experienced/accomplished, right-handed version of Moyer with worse control.
If you’re the Phills, ideally, Moyer’s ability to nibble and keep hitters off balance pays dividends against a line-up stacked with young, and therefore, possbibly nervously impatient hitters. Obviously, that’s not what happened though.
Now, Nomar Garciaparra on the other hand - that’s a guy who couldn’t crack the starting line-up on my softball team.
Well, Blanton pitched a gem in Game 4 of the LDS for Philly. But it’s entirely possible that that was a one-off. (And at least Blanton can crack 90…)
Mark your calendar, folks - Digglahhh will now use pitcher “wins” in an argument supporting a player.
Fewer than 50 pitchers have won more major league games than Jamie Moyer. Fewer than 60 have throw as many innings. He’s 60 games over .500 for his career.
Despite not being able to throw 90, he edges Blanton in Ks per 9, both throughout their careers, and in 2008.
Jamie Moyer, throughout his career, has been the poor man’s Tom Glavine. Joe Blanton has been the poor man’s Jamie Moyer.
I keep forgetting that you subscribe to the “playoff games are in no way different or more valuable than any other game” theory, which may explain our differences.
Perhaps I’m asking the wrong question, though. Maybe the question shouldn’t be “why do you start Moyer,” but instead, “Why do you leave Moyer in when he obviously doesn’t have it working?”
That’s an inaccurate characterization of my view, but it’s a common accusation. My contention is that players do not become anything other than what they are just because the calendar says October. Jaime Moyer is a better pitcher than Joe Blanton. So, if you ask me who I would rather have on the mound, I’d say Moyer - on April 15th, or in the swing game of a playoff series.
You ask me who I would rather have up Jeter or A-Rod, I say A-Rod. I don’t need to wait until you give me the qualifying month/score/inning, etc. I want the best player available at any given time. Given the choice of defining Moyer by 3700+ innings of regular season work, or a few recent stinkers in the playoffs, I’ll take the body of work. The plural of anecdote is not data.
They yanked him after 1 1/3; how quickly do you want to pull the trigger? He had the bases loaded with two outs (both Ks, and I think both looking) and the 8 hitter up. At that point is was only 2-0, and if he gets Dewitt, maybe he settles down or whatever. In either case 2-0 is no insurmountable deficit after 1 inning. But, Dewitt pulled one into the corner, and like that it was a 5-0 game.
Perhaps a better case along your lines is: what was Boston doing leaving Beckett in through 5+ in game 2 of that series?
I think what your POV ignores is pressure. Some players deal with it a lot better than others do. And you can’t tell me that the pressure of a key at-bat in July is anything at all like the pressure of a key at-bat in October.
No. I can’t… But, yes, I can.
I think the idea of pressure is something of a false dichotomy. The thing people always forget about professional athletes is that the worst guy on the field is like 4 standard deviations on the + side of the bell curve. Players face countless “clutch” ABs over the course of their careers. And, while a divisional championship collegiate game is not the World Series, it is not so far away when you are in that situation and that is the highest level and most pressure-packed moment you’ve been in before. The point is that those who truly can’t cope with the big stage, the big moment, etc. are almost always weeded out before attempting to assimilate to a group of players who are the best of the best.
I understand your point, but I think it is often overblown. Further, wouldn’t the idea of pressure lead you to lean toward the veteran (Moyer) as opposed to the kid (Blanton)?
There’s this notion all these rational and mathematical elements are rendered nearly moot in the world of sports. All of a sudden, “grit” explains anomalies better than sample size and selection bias is non-existent, as being able to perform under pressure is, apparently, not a requirement of an athlete until he reaches the post season in the most competitive league in the world.