According to this poll, Bush has an 8 point lead and has crested the 50% mark. The margin of error is 3.5%, so this is a statistically significant difference.
This poll, however, shows the biggest gap between the two candidates in a long time. That could mean that:
1)The poll is just veering to the extremes of the margin of error
2)Mcbride did bad enough in the last debate to swing a significant number of voters to Bush
3)It is under counting Dem voters, over counting Repub votes, or not counting likely voters appropriately.
That last is interesting to me, because from everything I know, likely voters are defined as voters who voted in two of the last three elections. If they used that standard, then I think there is a pretty good chance that they are undercounting Dem voters. That standard will not take into account the fact that the Dems appear to be very motivated this year, and that the bitterness from 2000 is still an issue. If it is, then the Dems will turn out in better numbers than the standard formulas would indicate.
There will be more polls in the next few days, and, taken together with this poll, should give us a better feel for how the race’s last week will play out.
UPDATE: I missed this from the original story:
“”The statewide telephone survey of 800 registered voters who described themselves as likely voters in the Nov. 5 general election…”
So, the question is partly answered. I still could not find any reference to the partisan breakdown of the respondents, so they could still be modeling the dem turn out incorrectly.
October 26th, 2002
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PalmBeachPost.com:Elections law complaint filed against Bush
Complaignts by a consumers group of campaign financing violations:
A Florida consumers group filed a complaint on Friday accusing Gov. Jeb Bush of violating state elections law by failing to report as much as $221,000 worth of in-kind travel aboard corporate airplanes.
The complaint to the Florida Elections Commission, based on an article last month in The Palm Beach Post, says that Bush did not report the full value of the trips his campaign staff received through the Republican Party, which served as the middleman for the flights.
“Consumers who are trying to get fairness, this is anything but fair,” said William Newton, executive director of the Tampa-based Florida Consumer Action Network. Williams said Bush cannot possibly see consumer issues objectively if large corporations are providing him cut-rate travel on private jets.
“We’re mad,” he said.
The Bush campaign did not return phone calls.
It may just be me, but it looks more and more like the wheels are coming off Jeb’s campaign.
October 26th, 2002
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According to this article, absentee votes for Wellstone will not count.
Hatch said absentee ballots already sent in for Coleman will be counted, but not votes cast for Wellstone. New absentee ballots sent out would reflect any replacement named by Democrats, Hatch said.
This means that thousands of votes have been lost - unless the Dems can keep Wellstone’s name on the ballot. However, the Attorney general of Minnesota seems to think that the law requires the Dems to replace Wellstone’s name:
Minnesota Attorney General Mike Hatch said Friday that state law allows Democrats to name a replacement for Wellstone up to four days before the election. Hatch, who at times choked back tears, said Wellstone’s name would be removed from ballots by county auditors and the replacement put in.
We will know more in the next couple of days, but if this initial information holds, holding Wellstone’s seat has just become much harder, if not impossible.
October 26th, 2002
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On the way home last night, I stopped and voted. Tennessee has early voting, and I drive past one of the stations everyday going to and from work. It seemed appropriate, considering the tragedy of yesterday. I even wrote myself in for our Tennessee House district - the Republican was running unopposed.
Paul Wellstone is dead, and he is not the kind of man you easily replace. But nothing he stood for died with him. So if you want to mourn Paul Wellstone, then do what I did. Vote. Get your friends and family to vote, and vote progressive. Give what you can to the candidates on the left. Even at this late juncture the money will help get out the vote. Keep writing letters to the editor and calling your Congress people. Volunteer for a campaign. Try and make a difference. If enough of us do so, then we will.
The system works. Paul Wellstone beat an incumbent Senator with hard work, grassroots volunteers, and by convincing people to vote. The system does work, as long as we make it work. Make it work.
October 26th, 2002
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