Ventura thinks Election will End in Courts
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This sounds a bit like he is trying to justify his position that he should appoint an interim Senator, but it is still a cause for concern.

“I fully somewhat expect there will be litigation,” Ventura said in an interview after he met with staffers at the Department of Natural Resources this morning. “I can’t see a way around this. And I think it’s going to come in the form of how the election is held.”
He added, “It’s very difficult to say that it’s a fair election when they’ve already said that anyone that voted absentee with the name ‘Paul Wellstone’ won’t be counted, and anyone who voted absentee with the name ‘Norm Coleman’ will be counted.
“That to me right there creates an unfair election.”

Since Wellstone is dead, if there is a lame duck session, and the election is challenged in court, the balance of power could shift to the Republicans. I think the Democrats would be sufficiently outraged to block any action, but it is a cause for concern.

UPDATE: Atrios is also discussing this.

October 28th, 2002 | Politics | one comment

Was the Russian response a success?
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There has been a lot of talk about the Russian gassing of the theater. Some people are calling the raid a success. I cannot agree.

The argument seems to be that the terrorists are dead, and at least most of the hostages survived. That seems a pretty poor definition of success. Over one hundred people are confirmed dead, several hundred are in the hospital, and over one hundred of those are known to be in serious condition. The death count will almost certainly rise. These people are dead due to the gas that the Russian officials used.

I don’t know if an assault was justified. Right now, no one does. There is very little information on what actually happened, and the reports are contradictory. However, the goal of any hostage crises has to be the survival of all the hostages, and the arrest or death of the hostage takers. Even if the assault was justified, it was still a failure. To judge it a success just because the terrorists were killed seems to me to be a mistake. How many of the hostages would have had to die before the raid was considered a failure? 10%? 25%? 60%? This was not about the terrorists, it was about the lives of the hostages.

The Russians used tactics that resulted in carnage. The fact that they are not revealing the name of the gas implies that it was possible to foresee that the gas would cause such carnage. Even if it wasn’t, it should be clear now that the combination of these tactics with that gas was a failure. One hopes that Russian authorities have learned from their mistakes

October 28th, 2002 | General | 2 comments

The World Series and Parenthood
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Yet another little reminder of how being a prent changes you.

This was a pretty good World Series, with some good play and plenty of dramatic swings. I saw most of it, but the image that sticks with me has nothing to do with baseball.

When I hear people talk about this Series, all I can see is the fleeting image FOX showed of Dusty Baker’s three year old son crying as the Angel’s celebrated their victory. At one point, the Giants were 7-0 in the post season when Dusty’s son was a batboy. He was their good luck charm, as far as he was concerned. He was even reported to have said that he HAD to go to the ballpark, sick or not (he stayed home from game 4 with a cold - a game that the Giants lost) - the team needed him. In his mind, in the peculiar logic of small children, he thought the Giants lost the World Series because HE let them down, becasue he was no longer lucky.

A couple of years ago, before my son was born, I would have noted that, and moved on. Yesterday, it broke my heart.

October 28th, 2002 | General | 4 comments

Despite what you may have heard, OBL is not Islam
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And unmedia points out why

Glenn has a transcript excerpt from Osama Bin Laden’s “fatwa” to “jihad” against Americans. Those are snort quotes, not scare quotes, because in this essay I want to discuss how OBL’s statement was (a) NOT a fatwa, and (b) a call to harabah, not jihad.

A fatwa is a religious pronouncement, a call to religious duty. By its very definition, therefore, it can only be invoked by a religious authority. OBL has no such authority, and in fact usually fatwas are issued by councils of clerics (in the Sunni tradition) or by religious imam (in the Shi’a). OBL’s family may have built many mosques, but it is certainly doubtful he ever led prayers in one, or ever acted in a religious advisory capacity. If anything, OBL is a pretender to religious authority. The notion that his pronouncements can be labeled fatwas is intrinsically ludicrous. Even the ruling Saudi family dares not lay claim to the authority to issue fatwas (though in their case, they just let their Wahabi symbiotes do it).

OBL’s ignorance about Islam and the laughability of his claim to religious authority is well-illustrated by his own words:

Read the whole thing, it is very enlightening.

October 28th, 2002 | General | no comments

Election Predictions
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Jeff Hauser has a rather comprehensive election prediction chart, which he plans to update regularly until November 5th.

October 28th, 2002 | General | no comments

Clement closing on Alexander
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GoMemphis: Politics

Alexander’s lead is down to nine points in the latest poll:

WASHINGTON - Republican Lamar Alexander holds a 9-point lead in the race for Senate over Democrat Bob Clement, who so far is failing to pick up the usual Democratic support from minority and female voters.
A poll for The Commercial Appeal and News Channel 3 shows Alexander with 45 percent of the vote to 36 percent for Clement, with a smattering of votes going to John Jay Hooker and others.
Seventeen percent of those surveyed said they had not made up their minds or refused to say who would get their votes.
Larry Pangle, 57, a Memphis pharmacist, said he’s looking for someone who “will do things according to what makes sense, rather than ideology.”
Ethridge & Associates polled 819 Tennesseans from Oct. 18 to 21. All had voted in the governor’s election in 1994 or 1998 or both. The poll has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
Typically, Democratic candidates have done well with female voters and Republicans with men. But women in Tennessee have not warmed up to Clement.

It is interesting that Alexander has not been able to break the 50% mark, despite his fondly remembered stint as Governor. It is a bit worrying, though, that Clement is not doing as well as expected among women and minorities. I am starting to see negative ads from the Alexander campaign, ads that very starkly accuse Clement of being a liar. A campaign that felt itself comfortably in the control would not, I think, use such crude ads. It is possible that Alexander and his campaign are beginning to panic, a bit.

One final point. The margin of error in this poll is 3.5%, but:

Ethridge & Associates polled 819 Tennesseans from Oct. 18 to 21. All had voted in the governor’s election in 1994 or 1998 or both. The poll has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

They may be undercounting the Dem vote. In 2000, there were voter irregularities in Tennessee, and Democrats here have not forgotten that. Early voting numbers suggest that turnout is going to be higher than usual for a midterm election. Combine that with the closeness of the governor’s race (Bredesen and Van Hillary are in a statistical tie), which should bring people to the polls, and I think that race will be much closer than it appears now.

October 28th, 2002 | Politics | no comments

Bush Administration trying to bully Intelligence Agencies
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USATODAY.com - Maintain CIA’s independence

Apparently, the Bush Administration doesn’t thin its justifications for war in Iraq are convincing, either:

This confirms what Knight-Ridder reporters found: “A growing number of military officers, intelligence professionals and diplomats privately have deep misgivings about the administration’s double-time march toward war,” the news service reported recently. “They charge that the administration squelches dissenting views and that intelligence analysts are under intense pressure to produce reports supporting the White House’s argument that Saddam poses such an immediate threat to the United States that pre-emptive military action is necessary.”
In the case of Iraq, the consequence of a serious manipulation of the truth could be the loss of thousands of American lives. Fortunately, CIA Director George Tenet has apparently managed to keep the CIA on the straight and narrow during the debate over Iraq.
Although close to President Bush, Tenet has, nevertheless, maintained a degree of independence. One example is the letter he recently sent to the House-Senate committee looking into the 9/11 attacks. In it, the CIA argued that it is unlikely Iraqi President Saddam Hussein would initiate a chemical or biological attack against the USA, unless he is first provoked by an American military strike.
Not exactly the message the White House was trying to send.

Does anyone thing this acceptable? The CIA and other intelligence gathering agencies are supposed to provide unbiased and, as best as possible, accurate information. The Bush Administration, apparently, has decided that it does not need accurate information - it only needs information that agrees with its own prejudices. If the Administration is successful in crushing the independence of the agencies, then we are all less safe.

This isn’t just about Iraq. How can the Administration make appropriate decisions if it is getting all of its intelligence tailored to fit its preconceived notions? It cannot. This is not a recipe for safety.

October 28th, 2002 | Politics | 2 comments

In Florida, phone calls telling people to vote on Nov 10th!
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Sun-Sentinel: News Nation World Archives

They made the mistake of calling the head of McBride’s campaign:

MIAMIThe chairman of the state Democratic Party asked U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft on Saturday to launch an investigation into possible dirty tricks in the final weeks of the governor’s race.

Bob Poe said he received “a disturbing phone call” on Friday afternoon from someone urging him to cast his absentee ballot on Nov. 10 — five days after Election Day. The caller said he was from Bill McBride’s gubernatorial campaign.

When I questioned the caller about the … election date, he was adamant that I wasn’t to cast my absentee ballot until November 10th,” Poe wrote.

Poe said he asked the caller the name of his company, and the man replied “`California’ and then something I couldn’t understand.” When Poe asked again, the caller said he was calling from “CSS.”

Assuming this isn’t just a moron, this is despicable. Once again, for those who weren’t paying attention the first time: In a democracy, if someone disagrees with your positions, you either attempt to change their minds or compromise. You do not attempt to prevent them from voting.

There is nothing more important in a democracy than the vote, and there is nothing more offensive to a democracy than people being denied their right to vote.

October 28th, 2002 | Politics | one comment