Putin is aboutto place the Bush Doctrine in action
President Vladimir V. Putin, echoing statements by President Bush after the Sept. 11 attacks, said today that Russia was prepared to strike at international terrorist groups in whatever country harbored them.
Speaking in the anguished aftermath of the 57-hour siege of a Moscow theater by Chechen guerrillas, Mr. Putin ordered the Russian military to draft a new doctrine adapting the country’s forces and tactics to meet terrorist threats.
This was the inevitable result of Bush making go it alone an official policy. Now he has two choices: allow Russia to romp wherever it pleases, or try and get Russia to back down. In the first case, he makes the world less safe and more inviting to terrorists (and if you think the US has done a bad job in Afghanistan, look at the horrible record the Russian army has in Chechnya). In the second case, Bush starkly declares that there is one set of rules for the US and one for the rest of the world. That further increases tensions, decrease the willingness of people to assist us, and accelerates challenges to American power.
Other nations, especially China, India and Russia and the EU to a lesser extent, are not going to like having their actions dictated by the United States. They may not be able to do anything about it now, but that will not always be the case. By rubbing their face in it, Bush could very well be accelerating the backlash.
October 29th, 2002
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This sounds a bit like he is trying to justify his position that he should appoint an interim Senator, but it is still a cause for concern.
“I fully somewhat expect there will be litigation,” Ventura said in an interview after he met with staffers at the Department of Natural Resources this morning. “I can’t see a way around this. And I think it’s going to come in the form of how the election is held.”
He added, “It’s very difficult to say that it’s a fair election when they’ve already said that anyone that voted absentee with the name ‘Paul Wellstone’ won’t be counted, and anyone who voted absentee with the name ‘Norm Coleman’ will be counted.
“That to me right there creates an unfair election.”
Since Wellstone is dead, if there is a lame duck session, and the election is challenged in court, the balance of power could shift to the Republicans. I think the Democrats would be sufficiently outraged to block any action, but it is a cause for concern.
UPDATE: Atrios is also discussing this.
October 28th, 2002
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There has been a lot of talk about the Russian gassing of the theater. Some people are calling the raid a success. I cannot agree.
The argument seems to be that the terrorists are dead, and at least most of the hostages survived. That seems a pretty poor definition of success. Over one hundred people are confirmed dead, several hundred are in the hospital, and over one hundred of those are known to be in serious condition. The death count will almost certainly rise. These people are dead due to the gas that the Russian officials used.
I don’t know if an assault was justified. Right now, no one does. There is very little information on what actually happened, and the reports are contradictory. However, the goal of any hostage crises has to be the survival of all the hostages, and the arrest or death of the hostage takers. Even if the assault was justified, it was still a failure. To judge it a success just because the terrorists were killed seems to me to be a mistake. How many of the hostages would have had to die before the raid was considered a failure? 10%? 25%? 60%? This was not about the terrorists, it was about the lives of the hostages.
The Russians used tactics that resulted in carnage. The fact that they are not revealing the name of the gas implies that it was possible to foresee that the gas would cause such carnage. Even if it wasn’t, it should be clear now that the combination of these tactics with that gas was a failure. One hopes that Russian authorities have learned from their mistakes
October 28th, 2002
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Yet another little reminder of how being a prent changes you.
This was a pretty good World Series, with some good play and plenty of dramatic swings. I saw most of it, but the image that sticks with me has nothing to do with baseball.
When I hear people talk about this Series, all I can see is the fleeting image FOX showed of Dusty Baker’s three year old son crying as the Angel’s celebrated their victory. At one point, the Giants were 7-0 in the post season when Dusty’s son was a batboy. He was their good luck charm, as far as he was concerned. He was even reported to have said that he HAD to go to the ballpark, sick or not (he stayed home from game 4 with a cold - a game that the Giants lost) - the team needed him. In his mind, in the peculiar logic of small children, he thought the Giants lost the World Series because HE let them down, becasue he was no longer lucky.
A couple of years ago, before my son was born, I would have noted that, and moved on. Yesterday, it broke my heart.
October 28th, 2002
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And unmedia points out why
Glenn has a transcript excerpt from Osama Bin Laden’s “fatwa” to “jihad” against Americans. Those are snort quotes, not scare quotes, because in this essay I want to discuss how OBL’s statement was (a) NOT a fatwa, and (b) a call to harabah, not jihad.
A fatwa is a religious pronouncement, a call to religious duty. By its very definition, therefore, it can only be invoked by a religious authority. OBL has no such authority, and in fact usually fatwas are issued by councils of clerics (in the Sunni tradition) or by religious imam (in the Shi’a). OBL’s family may have built many mosques, but it is certainly doubtful he ever led prayers in one, or ever acted in a religious advisory capacity. If anything, OBL is a pretender to religious authority. The notion that his pronouncements can be labeled fatwas is intrinsically ludicrous. Even the ruling Saudi family dares not lay claim to the authority to issue fatwas (though in their case, they just let their Wahabi symbiotes do it).
OBL’s ignorance about Islam and the laughability of his claim to religious authority is well-illustrated by his own words:
Read the whole thing, it is very enlightening.
October 28th, 2002
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Jeff Hauser has a rather comprehensive election prediction chart, which he plans to update regularly until November 5th.
October 28th, 2002
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GoMemphis: Politics
Alexander’s lead is down to nine points in the latest poll:
WASHINGTON - Republican Lamar Alexander holds a 9-point lead in the race for Senate over Democrat Bob Clement, who so far is failing to pick up the usual Democratic support from minority and female voters.
A poll for The Commercial Appeal and News Channel 3 shows Alexander with 45 percent of the vote to 36 percent for Clement, with a smattering of votes going to John Jay Hooker and others.
Seventeen percent of those surveyed said they had not made up their minds or refused to say who would get their votes.
Larry Pangle, 57, a Memphis pharmacist, said he’s looking for someone who “will do things according to what makes sense, rather than ideology.”
Ethridge & Associates polled 819 Tennesseans from Oct. 18 to 21. All had voted in the governor’s election in 1994 or 1998 or both. The poll has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
Typically, Democratic candidates have done well with female voters and Republicans with men. But women in Tennessee have not warmed up to Clement.
It is interesting that Alexander has not been able to break the 50% mark, despite his fondly remembered stint as Governor. It is a bit worrying, though, that Clement is not doing as well as expected among women and minorities. I am starting to see negative ads from the Alexander campaign, ads that very starkly accuse Clement of being a liar. A campaign that felt itself comfortably in the control would not, I think, use such crude ads. It is possible that Alexander and his campaign are beginning to panic, a bit.
One final point. The margin of error in this poll is 3.5%, but:
Ethridge & Associates polled 819 Tennesseans from Oct. 18 to 21. All had voted in the governor’s election in 1994 or 1998 or both. The poll has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
They may be undercounting the Dem vote. In 2000, there were voter irregularities in Tennessee, and Democrats here have not forgotten that. Early voting numbers suggest that turnout is going to be higher than usual for a midterm election. Combine that with the closeness of the governor’s race (Bredesen and Van Hillary are in a statistical tie), which should bring people to the polls, and I think that race will be much closer than it appears now.
October 28th, 2002
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USATODAY.com - Maintain CIA’s independence
Apparently, the Bush Administration doesn’t thin its justifications for war in Iraq are convincing, either:
This confirms what Knight-Ridder reporters found: “A growing number of military officers, intelligence professionals and diplomats privately have deep misgivings about the administration’s double-time march toward war,” the news service reported recently. “They charge that the administration squelches dissenting views and that intelligence analysts are under intense pressure to produce reports supporting the White House’s argument that Saddam poses such an immediate threat to the United States that pre-emptive military action is necessary.”
In the case of Iraq, the consequence of a serious manipulation of the truth could be the loss of thousands of American lives. Fortunately, CIA Director George Tenet has apparently managed to keep the CIA on the straight and narrow during the debate over Iraq.
Although close to President Bush, Tenet has, nevertheless, maintained a degree of independence. One example is the letter he recently sent to the House-Senate committee looking into the 9/11 attacks. In it, the CIA argued that it is unlikely Iraqi President Saddam Hussein would initiate a chemical or biological attack against the USA, unless he is first provoked by an American military strike.
Not exactly the message the White House was trying to send.
Does anyone thing this acceptable? The CIA and other intelligence gathering agencies are supposed to provide unbiased and, as best as possible, accurate information. The Bush Administration, apparently, has decided that it does not need accurate information - it only needs information that agrees with its own prejudices. If the Administration is successful in crushing the independence of the agencies, then we are all less safe.
This isn’t just about Iraq. How can the Administration make appropriate decisions if it is getting all of its intelligence tailored to fit its preconceived notions? It cannot. This is not a recipe for safety.
October 28th, 2002
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Sun-Sentinel: News Nation World Archives
They made the mistake of calling the head of McBride’s campaign:
MIAMIThe chairman of the state Democratic Party asked U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft on Saturday to launch an investigation into possible dirty tricks in the final weeks of the governor’s race.
Bob Poe said he received “a disturbing phone call” on Friday afternoon from someone urging him to cast his absentee ballot on Nov. 10 — five days after Election Day. The caller said he was from Bill McBride’s gubernatorial campaign.
When I questioned the caller about the … election date, he was adamant that I wasn’t to cast my absentee ballot until November 10th,” Poe wrote.
Poe said he asked the caller the name of his company, and the man replied “`California’ and then something I couldn’t understand.” When Poe asked again, the caller said he was calling from “CSS.”
Assuming this isn’t just a moron, this is despicable. Once again, for those who weren’t paying attention the first time: In a democracy, if someone disagrees with your positions, you either attempt to change their minds or compromise. You do not attempt to prevent them from voting.
There is nothing more important in a democracy than the vote, and there is nothing more offensive to a democracy than people being denied their right to vote.
October 28th, 2002
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This is terrifying
President Bush has authority as commander in chief to order the indefinite imprisonment of American-born terror suspects without second-guessing by federal judges, the Justice Department told a federal appeals court yesterday.
Justice Department lawyers set the stage for a landmark courtroom battle in Virginia on Monday, telling the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Richmond that a federal judge in Norfolk did not have the authority to conduct an inquiry into the president’s decision to imprison Yaser Esam Hamdi as an “enemy combatant” without charges, a lawyer or a trial.
The case pitting the constitutional powers of a president against the constitutional protections afforded individual Americans is expected to reach the U.S. Supreme Court.
Justice Department lawyers insisted that a two-page declaration about Hamdi’s battlefield activities submitted to U.S. District Judge Robert Doumar provided “an adequate factual basis to justify the military’s wartime detention” of Hamdi without additional judicial review. The sworn declaration was submitted by a Pentagon lawyer.
I have spoken about this before, but we are a couple of bad court decisions away from the complete gutting of a major portion of our Constitution. Bush is arguing for the right to arbitrarily and without the possibility of review to hold someone indefinitely, without even bothering to charge that person.
Citizens in a democracy are not subject to the whims of the head of state. Citizens in a democracy should not have to fear being “disappeared”. Citizens in a democracy should not have to worry that the military could take them away forever.
Where is the outrage? How can anyone who believes in democracy and freedom not be appalled by this? Freedom isn’t freedom if it does not apply to everyone.
October 27th, 2002
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Mondale Likely To Yield to Pleas To Run for Senate (washingtonpost.com)
Nothing is going to be official until after the services, but it looks like Mondale will accept being placed on the ballot:
With control of the Senate possibly at stake, a family source said Wellstone’s two surviving sons will soon make it clear that they hope Mondale will succeed their father. One of Mondale’s former aides, who has spoken to him several times since Friday, said the former vice president was still discussing the abrupt change in the political landscape with his wife, Joan, and his son Ted. But the former staffer added: “There’s a good chance he will do it. He’s often said that the best years of his political life were the Senate years.”
So, if I have any Minnesotta readers - is Mondale a big enough name to overcome the loss of the absentee ballots?
Link via Atrios
October 27th, 2002
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According to this poll, Bush has an 8 point lead and has crested the 50% mark. The margin of error is 3.5%, so this is a statistically significant difference.
This poll, however, shows the biggest gap between the two candidates in a long time. That could mean that:
1)The poll is just veering to the extremes of the margin of error
2)Mcbride did bad enough in the last debate to swing a significant number of voters to Bush
3)It is under counting Dem voters, over counting Repub votes, or not counting likely voters appropriately.
That last is interesting to me, because from everything I know, likely voters are defined as voters who voted in two of the last three elections. If they used that standard, then I think there is a pretty good chance that they are undercounting Dem voters. That standard will not take into account the fact that the Dems appear to be very motivated this year, and that the bitterness from 2000 is still an issue. If it is, then the Dems will turn out in better numbers than the standard formulas would indicate.
There will be more polls in the next few days, and, taken together with this poll, should give us a better feel for how the race’s last week will play out.
UPDATE: I missed this from the original story:
“”The statewide telephone survey of 800 registered voters who described themselves as likely voters in the Nov. 5 general election…”
So, the question is partly answered. I still could not find any reference to the partisan breakdown of the respondents, so they could still be modeling the dem turn out incorrectly.
October 26th, 2002
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PalmBeachPost.com:Elections law complaint filed against Bush
Complaignts by a consumers group of campaign financing violations:
A Florida consumers group filed a complaint on Friday accusing Gov. Jeb Bush of violating state elections law by failing to report as much as $221,000 worth of in-kind travel aboard corporate airplanes.
The complaint to the Florida Elections Commission, based on an article last month in The Palm Beach Post, says that Bush did not report the full value of the trips his campaign staff received through the Republican Party, which served as the middleman for the flights.
“Consumers who are trying to get fairness, this is anything but fair,” said William Newton, executive director of the Tampa-based Florida Consumer Action Network. Williams said Bush cannot possibly see consumer issues objectively if large corporations are providing him cut-rate travel on private jets.
“We’re mad,” he said.
The Bush campaign did not return phone calls.
It may just be me, but it looks more and more like the wheels are coming off Jeb’s campaign.
October 26th, 2002
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According to this article, absentee votes for Wellstone will not count.
Hatch said absentee ballots already sent in for Coleman will be counted, but not votes cast for Wellstone. New absentee ballots sent out would reflect any replacement named by Democrats, Hatch said.
This means that thousands of votes have been lost - unless the Dems can keep Wellstone’s name on the ballot. However, the Attorney general of Minnesota seems to think that the law requires the Dems to replace Wellstone’s name:
Minnesota Attorney General Mike Hatch said Friday that state law allows Democrats to name a replacement for Wellstone up to four days before the election. Hatch, who at times choked back tears, said Wellstone’s name would be removed from ballots by county auditors and the replacement put in.
We will know more in the next couple of days, but if this initial information holds, holding Wellstone’s seat has just become much harder, if not impossible.
October 26th, 2002
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On the way home last night, I stopped and voted. Tennessee has early voting, and I drive past one of the stations everyday going to and from work. It seemed appropriate, considering the tragedy of yesterday. I even wrote myself in for our Tennessee House district - the Republican was running unopposed.
Paul Wellstone is dead, and he is not the kind of man you easily replace. But nothing he stood for died with him. So if you want to mourn Paul Wellstone, then do what I did. Vote. Get your friends and family to vote, and vote progressive. Give what you can to the candidates on the left. Even at this late juncture the money will help get out the vote. Keep writing letters to the editor and calling your Congress people. Volunteer for a campaign. Try and make a difference. If enough of us do so, then we will.
The system works. Paul Wellstone beat an incumbent Senator with hard work, grassroots volunteers, and by convincing people to vote. The system does work, as long as we make it work. Make it work.
October 26th, 2002
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I never met Paul Wellstone, and never had the privilege to vote for him, but I admired him a great deal. He was a constant fighter for what he believed in, a tireless champion for those of us who could not fight for ourselves, and an inspiration. He literally restored my faith in elections in this country. Imagine, a liberal Democrat unseating a Republican in the middle of the Gulf War build up - and doing it from the back of a van. Voters still mattered, after all. For that, more than anything, I am grateful for his service.
People like Wellstone do not come along very often, and we are all poorer for his passing.
October 25th, 2002
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CNN.com - Senator, family killed in Minnesota plane crash - Oct. 25, 2002
God d*mn it, this is not fair:
Minnesota (CNN) — Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone, his wife and a daughter died Friday in a small plane crash near Eveleth, Minnesota, Democratic sources said.
The sources said three staff members and two crew members also died in the crash.
Why the h*ll do we always lose the best amongst us when we need them the most?
My condolonces to the Wellstone family, and the familes and friends of the crew members who died.
October 25th, 2002
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There are no guarantees that studies paid for by drug compnaies are honest, accurate, or will even see the light of day:
•Researchers rarely were allowed a say in the design of the clinical trials, with only 10 percent of contracts covering how data is collected and monitored and only 5 percent covering how data is analyzed and interpreted.
•Less than 1 percent of contracts guaranteed that results would be published and that an independent committee would have control over that. But 40 percent of contracts addressed editorial control of manuscripts.
•Only 1 percent of contracts required an independent board to monitor patient safety. Such boards can stop a study early if the treatment is found to be harming participants.
This underlines the dangers of getting our health information from companies whose financial health depends on that information. Without oversight, without guarantees that the trials are going to be conducted properly, we have no guarantee that the information we see is accurate, or that we will get all the information to begin with.
At the very least, the FDA should insist on standards that correct the problems found in this report, and refuse to accept studies that do not follow them.
October 25th, 2002
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Daily Kos: Bush endorses McBride
Bill McBride, the Democratic nominee for governor, has bagged the biggest endorsement of his campaign: Republican Gov. Jeb Bush.
“He really is one of the great Floridians of our time,” Bush says of McBride — the same opponent the governor has been attacking as a “reckless corporate lawyer” in ads for months.
Bush’s high praise, videotaped for an awards ceremony at McBride’s former law firm in 1999, begins airing today statewide. The McBride campaign has made Bush’s remarks the centerpiece of a new TV ad challenging the governor for running attack ads against McBride.
“Does Jeb Bush believe his own negative ads? ” the McBride spot asks. “You be the judge.”
Whoever is running McBride’s campaign is very good. These ads are potentially devastating. It makes Bush’s campaign look like either a lie, or forces him to explain why McBride has changed so much in the last three years. Combined with the “devious” remarks, they go a long way to painting Bush as untrustworthy.
October 25th, 2002
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Tim form Road to Surfdom reminds us who the important names (stupid permalinks are down. Look for the post entitled “Shootings -Day its over) from the sniper case really are:
The second point I wanted to make was simply to remind us of those who were killed:
Go read the entire list, and the snippets about their lives Tim has collected.
Those are the people we should be remembering, not the killers.
October 25th, 2002
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